Inkling's Public Prediction Markets

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What will be announced at the Apple Music Event on September 1?

What do you think?

Current leading prediction:

There is a 100.0% chance "iPod Touch gets Retina display & camera" will be the answer.

$13.14 today

Any, all or none of these events might be announced at the event.

Today: unchanged

How many iPads will Apple sell in 2010?

Current leading prediction:

The predicted value is 9,752,000.0

Today: up $0.01

Who will win the 2012 U.S. Republican Party presidential nomination?

Current leading prediction:

There is a 19.6% chance "Mitt Romney" will be the answer.

Today: unchanged

Who will win the 2010 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?

Current leading prediction:

There is a 95.3% chance "John McCain (R)" will be the answer.

Today: unchanged

Who will be the 2010 MLB Playoff Teams?

Current leading prediction:

There is a 96.2% chance "Tampa Bay Rays" will be the answer.

Today: up $14.07

Will the Democrats lose the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 2010 elections?

Current leading prediction:

Chances are 71.9%

Today: unchanged

What will happen to Roger Clemens now that he has been indicted for lying to Congress?

Current leading prediction:

There is a 52.4% chance "Convicted" will be the answer.

Today: up $2.96

Atlantic Hurricane Earl: How strong will he get?

Current leading prediction:

There is a 97.6% chance "category 4" will be the answer.

Today: unchanged

Who will win the FIBA men's basketball world championships?

Current leading prediction:

There is a 70.7% chance "USA" will be the answer.

Activity

NFL 2010: Which NFC teams will make the playoffs?

Dallas Cowboys currently leads with a chance of 69.6%.

Tom501 made a trade. less than a minute ago

Financial: What will be the % change for the NASDAQ on 2nd September 2010?

Up 0.50% - 0.99% currently leads with a chance of 34.5%.

Tom501 made 3 trades. Most recent 10 minutes ago
job made 13 trades. Most recent 18 minutes ago
ChloeBurns made 5 trades. Most recent about 1 hour ago

Nasdaq Index : At what level will it close on Friday September 3?

2100 - 2199.99 currently leads with a chance of 66.9%.

job made 6 trades. Most recent 14 minutes ago

How many "Tea Party" candidates (as defined) will be elected to the U.S. Senate in the Nov. 2, 2010, elections?

Four currently leads with a chance of 30.7%.

Tom501 made 2 trades. Most recent 24 minutes ago

EPL Who will finish in the top 4 in the 2010/11 English Premier League?

Chelsea currently leads with a chance of 80.0%.

Pabloc made a trade. 24 minutes ago

Dow Jones Industrial Average: At what level will it close on Friday September 3 ?

10,100 -10,399.99 currently leads with a chance of 68.0%.

job made 2 trades. Most recent 24 minutes ago

Who will finish highest in the English Premier League table 2010/11 Tottenham or Aston Villa?

Tottenham currently leads with a chance of 55.4%.

Pabloc made a trade. 26 minutes ago

Dutch stock market: where will the AEX close on September 6, 2010

310 - 329.99 currently leads with a chance of 83.1%.

job made 3 trades. Most recent 26 minutes ago

Who will be the next Permanent manager of Aston Villa ?

Any other manager currently leads with a chance of 17.0%.

Pabloc made 2 trades. Most recent 26 minutes ago

Atlantic TS/Hurricane Gaston: How strong will he get?

category 2 currently leads with a chance of 29.2%.

brockroof made 2 trades. Most recent 38 minutes ago
chelseaboys made 4 trades. Most recent about 1 hour ago

Which Atlantic hurricane of 2010 will be the first to make landfall in the continental U.S.? ×3

Earl currently leads with a chance of 71.3%.

brockroof made 3 trades. Most recent 40 minutes ago
AxmxZ made a trade. about 1 hour ago

More...

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Current News Sources

Inkling Prediction Market Solutions: News + Musings

Aug

2010

Seminar Announcement: Using Prediction Markets in Government

Together with MITRE, the MIT Lean Advancement Initiative, and Iowa State University, we’re hosting a day long seminar September 22nd in McLean, VA about using prediction...

Aug

2010

New Feature - Give someone else karma by "liking" their question or comment

A few months ago we introduced the concept of “karma” to Inkling. We had a lot of ideas at the time, but had quickly moved on to some more pressing things....

Aug

2010

The Overconfidence Problem in Forecasting

An article on Friday in the New York Times highlighted a peculiar problem we’ve heard about as well. A few of our clients who have studied the responses of different...

Jul

2010

Show and hide categories of questions

A couple notable feature enhancements were released yesterday:First, you can now hide and show categories from the list of questions and Inkling will remember your preferences...

Most Active Questions This Week

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Which MLB Teams will improve in the second half of the season?

Trades: 946 • 2 Comments • Sports • Creator: PhilCulp • Ends: September 30, 2010 @ 07:50am PDT

Atlantic Hurricane Earl: How strong will he get?

Trades: 91 • Science • Creator: onedave • Ends: September 05, 2010 @ 11:00am PDT

Who will be the 2010 MLB Playoff Teams?

Trades: 2559 • 7 Comments • Entertainment • Creator: Best Record • Ends: October 01, 2010 @ 12:00am PDT

Which Atlantic hurricane of 2010 will be the first to make landfall in the continental U.S.?

Trades: 155 • 17 Comments • Science • Creator: mvguy • Ends: November 01, 2010 @ 11:09am PDT

MLB: Which hitters will hit 40 or more Home Runs in 2010 regular season?

Trades: 437 • 4 Comments • Sports • Creator: chelseaboys • Ends: September 26, 2010 @ 02:22pm PDT

How many iPads will Apple sell in 2010?

9,752,000.00

unchanged today

Trades: 928 • 29 Comments • Computers and Internet • Creator: amsiegel • Ends: December 31, 2010 @ 05:00pm PST

What position will each NFL team finish the 2010-11 regular season?

Trades: 123 • 7 Comments • Sports • Creator: PhilCulp • Ends: December 25, 2010 @ 09:41am PST

Which team will win the 2010 NL Wild Card?

Trades: 806 • Sports • Creator: grandmasterfunky • Ends: October 31, 2010 @ 11:59pm PDT

Wanneer staat het nieuwe kabinet op de trappen van het paleis? [When will the new Dutch government be installed?]

Trades: 254 • 8 Comments • Politics and Current Events • Creator: henkm • Ends: October 02, 2010 @ 07:03pm PDT

Which Nascar Sprint Cup drivers will make the Chase for the Cup?

Trades: 100 • 1 Comment • Sports • Creator: onedave • Ends: September 05, 2010 @ 04:00pm PDT

When will Trevor Hoffman record his 600th save?

Trades: 530 • 25 Comments • Sports • Creator: wstritt • Ends: October 03, 2010 @ 08:00am PDT

Which film released after Sept. 1, 2010, will be the first to reach $100M in total domestic box office receipts?

Trades: 31 • 4 Comments • Entertainment • Creator: mvguy • Ends: December 01, 2010 @ 10:45am PST

Nasdaq Index : At what level will it close on Friday September 3?

Trades: 43 • Business and Economy • Creator: job • Ends: September 06, 2010 @ 12:00pm PDT

Dutch stock market: where will the AEX close on September 6, 2010

Trades: 39 • Business and Economy • Creator: job • Ends: September 06, 2010 @ 08:20am PDT

Which Atlantic hurricane will be the strongest of the 2010 season?

Trades: 93 • 5 Comments • Science • Creator: wstritt • Ends: December 15, 2010 @ 12:00am PST

NFL 2010: Which NFC teams will make the playoffs?

Dallas Cowboys currently leads with a chance of 69.6%.

Financial: What will be the % change for the NASDAQ on 2nd September 2010?

Up 0.50% - 0.99% currently leads with a chance of 34.5%.

Nasdaq Index : At what level will it close on Friday September 3?

2100 - 2199.99 currently leads with a chance of 66.9%.

How many "Tea Party" candidates (as defined) will be elected to the U.S. Senate in the Nov. 2, 2010, elections?

Four currently leads with a chance of 30.7%.

EPL Who will finish in the top 4 in the 2010/11 English Premier League?

Chelsea currently leads with a chance of 80.0%.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: At what level will it close on Friday September 3 ?

10,100 -10,399.99 currently leads with a chance of 68.0%.

Who will finish highest in the English Premier League table 2010/11 Tottenham or Aston Villa?

Tottenham currently leads with a chance of 55.4%.

Dutch stock market: where will the AEX close on September 6, 2010

310 - 329.99 currently leads with a chance of 83.1%.

Who will be the next Permanent manager of Aston Villa ?

Any other manager currently leads with a chance of 17.0%.

Atlantic TS/Hurricane Gaston: How strong will he get?

category 2 currently leads with a chance of 29.2%.

Which Atlantic hurricane of 2010 will be the first to make landfall in the continental U.S.? ×3

Earl currently leads with a chance of 71.3%.

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