In the U.S. 2008 presidential election, will the winner of the popular vote be the winner of the Electoral College? (Inkling Markets Public Marketplace)

In the U.S. 2008 presidential election, will the winner of the popular vote be the winner of the Electoral College?

Ends: 11/04/08 @ 12:00 PM PST

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Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur.

PREDICTIONS	CURRENT VALUE	TODAY
Yes	$95.55/ $100.00	(closed)
No candidate wins Electoral College	$1.31/ $0.00	(closed)
Popular loser wins Electoral College	$2.65/ $0.00	(closed)
E.C. winner unknown on 1/1/2009	$0.48/ $0.00	(closed)

TAGS

2008 College election electoral McCain obama President Presidential vote

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sbalen trades: 940 • markets run: 2 • member since: 08/08/07

The option ‘Popular loser wins Electoral College’ would that be the same event as occurred in the 2000 election?

written: Jun 26 2008 @ 06:13 AM PDT | DISCLOSURE - This user is participating in this market.

mvguy trades: 1348 • markets run: 66 • member since: 06/23/07

Yes.

written: Sep 15 2008 @ 06:24 AM PDT

market information

For the purposes of this market, to win the Electoral College a candidate needs to earn at least 270 electoral votes. The electoral votes in this market will be based on the popular vote in each state and/or district; in other words, this market does not take into account faithless electors who might vote contrary to their designated votes.

The popular vote for this market will be determined by mainstream media reports; in the unlikely event of an election that is so close that a popular-vote tie is possible, the popular vote will be that announced by the Federal Elections Commission in its report on the 2008 election. If, as would be extremely unlikely, the FEC tally shows a tie in the popular vote, the vote of the most populous state will be used as a tiebreaker, followed by the second-largest state, and so on.

The option “Electoral College winner unknown” refers to possibility that the winner of a bloc of electoral votes from one state continues to be disputed as of the start of the new year (Eastern Standard Time). This could have happened in 2000, for example, if the Supreme Court hadn’t made a ruling until 2001, or if Al Gore had been still actively contesting the court’s decision.

Although this market is scheduled to close on Election Day, it may be reopened in the event of a seriously disputed election.