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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| Two to three | $96.42/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Zero | $3.84/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| One | $5.10/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Six to 10 | $0.74/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| 11 to 20 | $0.36/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| More than 20 | $0.22/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Four to five | $2.24/ $0.00 | (closed) |
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This market is inspired by the market How many Presidential/VP candidate visits to Virginia by Election Day, and definitions and market rules used in that market will also be applied here unless explicitly stated otherwise.
Whereas the Virginia market will gauge Inkingistas’ predictions on the intensity of the campaign in a traditional battleground state, this one looks at a state that has been viewed in the past as safe for one party.
This market is to determine the number of campaign visits made by the major-party presidential and vice-presidential nominees (or presumptive nominees) between July 1, 2008, and Nov. 4, 2008 inclusive. For the purposes of this market, a visit is a public or semi-public event covered by the mainstream Montana media; private events such as a closed-to-the-media fundraiser or a meeting with a newspaper editorial board do not count as public events. Also not counting are events held by members of the candidates’ families and other surrogates. If a presidential and vice-presidential nominee appear jointly throughout their visit, that counts as one visit; if they hold any events separately, that would count as two visits.
Two events that take place in the same community will count as a single event for the purposes of this market as long as they take place in one sequence of events or roughly at the same time. So if a candidate publicly greets supporters at the airport, gives a speech and then appears at an ice-cream shop to shake hands with supporters, that counts as one visit rather than two. However, traveling to another community would count as a separate visit. For example, if a candidate gives a morning speech in Great Falls and holds a public event that afternoon in Helena, that counts as two visits.
If a person from Montana is selected as a vice-presidential nominee, the market will close and the “more than 20” option will cash out at $100.
Visits to date
Obama, July 4, parade and picnic in Butte
Obama, August 27, town hall with veterans in Billings
Biden, September 7, town hall in Kalispell
No others held or announced as of November 2