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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| $68.14 | 0.00 | |
| Microsoft | $55.98 | 0.00 |
| Salesforce | $55.68 | 0.00 |
| IBM | $50.50 | 0.00 |
| SAP | $50.00 | 0.00 |
| Oracle | $42.37 | 0.00 |
I’m confused by this market. For instance, Google is trading at 68.14 right now. So if I want to buy or sell Google I have to answer this question:
Which established IT vendors will profit from the Enterprise 2.0 paradigm shift?
* Chances are higher than 68.14%
* Chances are lower than 68.14%
Chance are higher or lower than 68.14% that what? That Google will profit?
I’m pretty sure all the companies listed will make a profit at some time, but how will the market maker determine whether that profit was the result of the “Enterprise 2.0 paradigm shift” buzzword bonanza and not just, um, Enterprise 1.7 paradigm phase alignment?
http://theobvious.typepad.com/blog/2007/03/the_100_guarant.html
The EIVI is a market launched by a group of industry professionials (The Enterprise Irregulars) to channel opinions on the potential outcome of the Enterprise 2.0 paradigm shift for established IT vendors.
This market isn’t about a definitive outcome, but rather about the positive or negative impact for established vendors.
If you think one of them will gain more market and mindshare through Enterprise 2.0 than the current trading price reflects, buy more. If you think it looks worse, sell.
