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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| USLEAV07 false AND >= 100k IBC EOY 2007 | $37.00/ $37.00 | (closed) |
| USLEAV07 false AND < 100k IBC EOY 2007 | $37.00/ $37.00 | (closed) |
| USLEAV07 true AND >= 100k IBC EOY 2007 | $14.29/ $14.29 | (closed) |
| USLEAV07 true AND < 100k IBC EOY 2007 | $11.69/ $11.69 | (closed) |
What is the impact U.S. withdrawal from Iraq as specified by http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 on Iraqi civil war (specified by lower bound of at least 100k deaths published by http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ on Jan 1, 2008).
No Withdrawal + Civil War
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is NOT judged at 100 (meaning there are 100k or more US troops in Iraq in April 2007 or no information available) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is >= 100k.
No Withdrawal and NO civil war
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is NOT judged at 100 (meaning there are 100k or more US troops in Iraq in April 2007 or no information available) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is < 100k.
Withdrawal + Civil War
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is judged at 100 (meaning there are less than 100k US troops in Iraq in April 2007) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is >= 100k.
Withdrawal and NO civil war
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is judged at 100 (meaning there are less than 100k US troops in Iraq in April 2007) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is < 100k.