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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| USLEAV07 false AND IBC < 40k May-Dec07 | $97.93/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| USLEAV07 true AND IBC >= 40k May-Dec07 | $11.82/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| USLEAV07 true AND IBC < 40k May-Dec07 | $11.82/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| USLEAV07 false AND IBC >= 40k May-Dec07 | $2.07/ $0.00 | (closed) |
What is the impact U.S. withdrawal from Iraq as specified by http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 on Iraqi civil war (specified by lower bound of deaths published by http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ increasing by 40,000 or more between May 1, 2007 and Jan 1, 2008.
This is an improved version of http://home.inklingmarkets.com/market/show/2553
The improvement is that only post-April deaths are counted, disentangling the possibility that the number of deaths between now and April will impact both the probability of troop reduction and the probability of 100k total deaths at the end of 2008. I am interested in the impact withdrawal will have on Iraqi deaths, not vice versa or both at once!
No Withdrawal + No Civil War
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is NOT judged at 100 (meaning there are not less than 100k US troops in Iraq in April 2007 or no information is available) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is < 40,000 more than the number published midnight UTC May 1, 2007.
Withdrawal + Civil War
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is judged at 100 (meaning there are less than 100k US troops in Iraq in April 2007) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is >= 40,000 more than the number published midnight UTC May 1, 2007.
Withdrawal + No Civil War
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is judged at 100 (meaning there are less than 100k US troops in Iraq in April 2007) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is < 40,000 more than the number published midnight UTC May 1, 2007.
No Withdrawal + Civil War
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is NOT judged at 100 (meaning there are not less than 100k US troops in Iraq in April 2007 or no information is available) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is >= 40,000 more than the number published midnight UTC May 1, 2007.