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Where will there be the biggest increase in the proportion of seats held by women in national parliament, between 2004 and 2007?
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Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur.
| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| South Asia | $21.50 | (closed) |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | $19.85 | (closed) |
| Latin America and the Caribbean | $18.70 | (closed) |
| Eastern Europe and Central Asia | $16.06 | (closed) |
| East Asia & the Pacific | $12.53 | (closed) |
| Middle East and North Africa | $11.34 | (closed) |
Market ends: Sep 30, 2007 @ 11:59 PM PDT
Tags: davies equality evaluation gender indicator MDG monitoring rick
Tags: davies equality evaluation gender indicator MDG monitoring rick
discussion
Most recent comment:
trades: 0
markets run: 0
member since: 01/02/08
mmmmm fascinating. How about western europe? North America? This beggars belief! Trading on the futures of the south, if only as child’s play, but nevertheless…......
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market information
What this market is all about
This market is an experiment. Will people be interested in participating in this type of prediction market? Will the predictions be accurate? How quickly during the operation of the market will accurate predictions become evident? The argument for this type of use of prediction markets can be found in Rick Davies’s M&E blog You can post your comments there, or on this inklings.com website, under the “discussion” section above
What are the MDGs? The eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were agreed at the United Nations Millennium Summit in September 2000 and nearly 190 countries have subsequently signed up to them. The Goals range from halving global poverty and hunger to protecting the environment, improving health and sanitation and tackling illiteracy and discrimination against women. Alongside the Goals, a series of 18 targets were also drawn up to give the international community a number of tangible improvements to aim for within a fixed period of time, and also make it easier for them to measure their progress to date.
You can find a complete listing of the goals, targets, and indicators for MDGs here
The third MDG is to “Promote gender equality and empower women” One of the three indicators of the achievement of that goal is the “proportion of seats held by women in national parliament” This goal and indicator has been chosen for use in this experimental use of prediction markets, because it is relatively easy to measure and the data is readily available.
The authoritative source about regions’performance on this indicator will be the World Bank website at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED
This market will run up to September 30th 2007, but the predictions must relate to proportions of women in parliament by December 31st 2007. If the market is let to run any later in the year the winning participants will be those with good historical research skills rather than good capacity to predict. I will seek advice from Word Bank on how soon the results could be declared.
Please note: The region choices provided in this market do not include Western Europe, North America, Japan or Australia and New Zealand.
Useful Links
The UN Millenium Development Goals annual report
UN Millenium Development Goal Indicators
The World Bank: Millenium Development Goals at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/GMIS/gdmis.do?siteId=2&menuId=LNAV01HOME1
You can submit other websites for inclusion here via rick@mande.co.uk (you will need to respond to an automated spamarrest.com check)
stock information
South Asia
South Asia Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka
See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep. Côte d’Ivoire Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gabon Gambia, The Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Kenya Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mayotte Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda São Tomé and Principe Senegal Seychelles Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Togo Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe
See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED
Latin America and the Caribbean
Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Barbados Belize Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Grenada Guatemala Guyana Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines Suriname Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay Venezuela, RB
See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Eastern Europe and Central Asia Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Estonia Georgia Hungary Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Latvia Lithuania Macedonia, FYR Moldova Poland Romania Russian Federation Serbia and Montenegro Slovak Republic Tajikistan Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan
See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED
East Asia & the Pacific
East Asia and the Pacific American Samoa Cambodia China Fiji Indonesia Kiribati Korea, Dem. Rep. Lao PDR Malaysia Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. Sts. Mongolia Myanmar Northern Mariana Islands Palau Papua New Guinea Philippines Samoa Solomon Islands Thailand Timor-Leste Tonga Vanuatu Vietnam
See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED
Middle East and North Africa
Middle East and North Africa Algeria Djibouti Egypt, Arab Rep. Iran, Islamic Rep. Iraq Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco Oman Syrian Arab Republic Tunisia West Bank and Gaza Yemen, Rep.
See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED