How will Microsoft fare for product security in March, 2007? (Inkling Markets Public Marketplace)

How will Microsoft fare for product security in March, 2007?

Ends: 04/01/07 @ 12:00 AM PDT

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Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur.

PREDICTIONS	CURRENT VALUE	TODAY
Remote code execution in IE7	$43.05/ $0.00	(closed)
Remote code execution in Vista	$43.54/ $0.00	(closed)
Remote code execution in MS Office	$41.10/ $0.00	(closed)
Remote code execution in Outlook	$40.14/ $0.00	(closed)
Remote code execution in WMP 10	$15.19/ $0.00	(closed)

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microsoft security

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dysk trades: 259 • markets run: 1 • member since: 08/03/06

Outlook is part of the Office product line. If a vulnerability is discovered in Outlook, will it trigger this market to close as well?

—Erek

written: Mar 05 2007 @ 11:03 AM PST | DISCLOSURE - This user is participating in this market.

jnazario trades: 4 • markets run: 4 • member since: 02/26/07

You’re right, and I should have structured this better (and made it Office except for Outlook). Because of my mistake, an Outlook exploit in March 2007 will count as both Outlook at Office.

written: Mar 07 2007 @ 07:03 AM PST

market information

This market looks at several scenarios for Microsoft product security in March, 2007, looking at IE7, Vista, Office, and other products and remote code execution vulnerabilities. Decisions will be based on CVE vectors and Microsoft product bulletins.

stock information

Remote code execution in IE7

At least one remote code execution vulnerability will be disclosed in March, 2007 for the Microsoft product Internet Explorer 7. This vulnerability MAY involve user interaction but MUST allow for arbitrary code execution of the attacker’s choice.

Remote code execution in Vista

At least one remote code execution vulnerability will be disclosed in March, 2007 for the Microsoft product Windows Vista (excluding additional products such as MS Office). This vulnerability MAY NOT involve user interaction and MUST allow for arbitrary code execution of the attacker’s choice.

Remote code execution in MS Office

At least one remote code execution vulnerability will be disclosed in March, 2007 for the Microsoft product Office. This vulnerability MAY involve user interaction but MUST allow for arbitrary code execution of the attacker’s choice.

Remote code execution in Outlook

At least one remote code execution vulnerability will be disclosed in March, 2007 for the Microsoft products Outlook or Outlook Express. This vulnerability MAY involve user interaction but MUST allow for arbitrary code execution of the attacker’s choice.

Remote code execution in WMP 10

At least one remote code execution vulnerability will be disclosed in March, 2007 for the Microsoft product Windows Media Player 10. This vulnerability MAY involve user interaction but MUST allow for arbitrary code execution of the attacker’s choice.