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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| More than three months, less than four | $93.43/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| No strike | $3.90/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| One week or less | $1.53/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Less than one month, more than a week | $0.88/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| More than one month, less than two | $1.54/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| More than two months, less than three | $2.68/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| More than four months, less than five | $2.78/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| More than five months, less than six | $1.71/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| More than six months | $2.07/ $0.00 | (closed) |
The Writers Guild of America has set a November 5, 2007 strike deadline—if a deal is not reached by that time, a strike is likely. How long will a strike last, if one occurs?
A press release from the Writers Guild of America or other reliable media reports of an official end to the strike will be sufficient to end this market. If the strike continues past the market closing date, the market will close and “More than six months” will pay $100. If the strike is averted, or a strike begins and then is settled before May 6, the market will close before the listed market closing date.
(Note that despite the wording of the contract names, for example “less than two months, more than one,” if the strike lasts exactly two months this contract will pay off.
For purposes of this market, 12 midnight is considered to belong to the earlier day, while 12:00:01 AM is obviously on the following day. If the strike ends at midnight on January 5, 2008, then the contract “More than one month, less than two” will pay off at $100. Prevailing time in Los Angeles, CA will be used if necessary to settle the market.
ADDED CLARIFICATION: If a strike does not begin on Monday, November 5, but the WGA remains without a contract and a strike remains possible, the market will remain open. IF THE WGA BEGINS A STRIKE AFTER NOVEMBER 5, the dates in the contract definitions will be reset to match the actual starting date of the strike. For example, if the strike begins on November 9, then “One week or less” would pay off if the strike ends on or before November 16.
“3-4” will pay $100 if a deal is reach on or before March 5, 2006, but not before February 6.
The WGA deadline for a deal is Monday, November 5. As of market launch there is still time to reach a deal. “No strike” means exactly that – this contract will pay $100 if the WGA decides not to strike, whether or not they reach a deal before the deadline. If the WGA strikes, this contract will close at $0.
“Week” pays off if the WGA strikes and the strike is ended on or before November 12.
“0-1” will pay $100 if a deal is reach on or before December 5, but not before November 13.
“1-2” will pay $100 if a deal is reach on or before January 5, 2008, but not before December 6, 2007.
“2-3” will pay $100 if a deal is reach on or before February 5, 2006, but not before January 6.
“4-5” will pay $100 if a deal is reach on or before April 5, 2008, but not before March 6.
“5-6” will pay $100 if a deal is reach on or before May 5, 2008, but not before April 6.
“6+” will pay $100 if the strike continues past May 5, 2008.