All these options are overly optimistic. Not even in the most fortuitous scenario could the (standard model) Higgs be discovered before the latest option given (Sep 1 2009). It will take many years.

Maybe so. This market was started long before the LHC failed to come on-line on schedule, though… so don’t judge too harshly. :) I really want to tell y’all my guess, but feel it would be unbecoming of the person running the market.

Surely 3% chance of them announcing discovery by the end of October (11 days!) is still too high, I’ve sold as many as I can – seems like there are some free Inkles to be made here!

November 1st and no announcements about Higgs boson..

Hey all… sorry for the delay in cashing out! Such a long-term market… I forgot it had passed one of the dates! Thank you to whatever admin cashed it out for me.

I’d like to point out that there is NO chance at all that the Higgs will be found before September 2009. In fact, the LHC is now shut down, and because of the magnet failure that happened in September this year it won’t start running until August 2009, at the earliest. In reality it will probably be later than that. And even if it starts in August, there will not be any collisions. So the stock “September 1 2009 – Later/Never” is 100% guaranteed to be the correct choice.

See this talk (pdf) for more details: http://indico.cern.ch/getFile.py/access?contribId=92&sessionId=6&resId=1&materialId=slides&confId=22937