Under what circumstances would “They never find him” pay out?

Theortically never, but since exceptionally long markets are boring, I set this to mature in a year.

So “never” in this case, is defined as 06/12/09 @ 09:37 AM. At which point I will cash out as winner “never find him.”

Basically, this market is to test did he fake his suicide?

This means, of course, that “never+1” has a non imaginary value, so the girl who told me she’ll never date me, is totally fair game on 6/13/08.

thanks

For what it’s worth, authorities have ruled out suicide at this point (see http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/06/feds_suicide_is_painless_swind.php). I think the stock should remain open until he’s found or the market ends, though. Who knows what crazy things might happen? Maybe he’s going to jump into the Hudson, but he hasn’t done it yet.

well, lets just say that a certain stock is predicting that a certain ex hedge fund manager will sneak back from panama (no extradition, you see) into the US, sneak back into New York, and then jump into the Hudson.

Right now, y’all believe that there is an 8% change that that will happen, so who am I to judge…

Girlfriend has been arrested in connection with alleged escape/fake suicide:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/20/business/20bayou.html?ref=business

http://www.nypost.com/seven/06192008/news/regionalnews/ny_swinders_gal_pal_cuffed_116265.htm