Where will police find Samuel Israel III?

Available to trade:

POSSIBLE ANSWERS	CHANCE	TODAY
In the Caymans, or on the run more info	69.3%/ 100.0%	(closed)
At the bottom of the Hudson (suicide) more info	4.7%/ 0.0%	(closed)
They never find him more info	26.0%/ 0.0%	(closed)

Question closing

June 12, 2009 @ 09:37am PDT

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crime dealbreaker fund hedge Hudson israel PoE Samuel suicide

discussion

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RecycledCardboardBox • Wed Jun 11 2008 at 11:31am PDT

Under what circumstances would “They never find him” pay out?

pentheus • Fri Jun 13 2008 at 12:00pm PDT

Theortically never, but since exceptionally long markets are boring, I set this to mature in a year.

So “never” in this case, is defined as 06/12/09 @ 09:37 AM. At which point I will cash out as winner “never find him.”

Basically, this market is to test did he fake his suicide?

This means, of course, that “never+1” has a non imaginary value, so the girl who told me she’ll never date me, is totally fair game on 6/13/08.

thanks

RecycledCardboardBox • Mon Jun 16 2008 at 02:45pm PDT

For what it’s worth, authorities have ruled out suicide at this point (see http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/06/feds_suicide_is_painless_swind.php). I think the stock should remain open until he’s found or the market ends, though. Who knows what crazy things might happen? Maybe he’s going to jump into the Hudson, but he hasn’t done it yet.

pentheus • Wed Jun 18 2008 at 12:32am PDT

well, lets just say that a certain stock is predicting that a certain ex hedge fund manager will sneak back from panama (no extradition, you see) into the US, sneak back into New York, and then jump into the Hudson.

Right now, y’all believe that there is an 8% change that that will happen, so who am I to judge…

wstritt • Thu Jun 19 2008 at 04:19pm PDT

Girlfriend has been arrested in connection with alleged escape/fake suicide:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/20/business/20bayou.html?ref=business

http://www.nypost.com/seven/06192008/news/regionalnews/ny_swinders_gal_pal_cuffed_116265.htm

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Background information

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1033491520080610

you deceive investors for a number of years, defraud them of $400 million, and are set to go to jail for 20 years on Monday. Do you: a) jump of a bridge, or b) pretend to jump off a bridge and sail a boat to the Caymans?

More information about the possible answers

In the Caymans, or on the run

Samuel Israel III will have faked suicide on the Bear Mountain Bridge. Like Harrison Ford, the man is a fugitive.

At the bottom of the Hudson (suicide)

Samuel Israel III will have actually committed suicide by jumping off the Bear Mountain Bridge.

They never find him

Samuel Israel III’s body, living or breathing, is not found.

I have the market mature in a year, because, well, I’m sure I’ll forget about it by then.