| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| In the Caymans, or on the run | $69.32/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| At the bottom of the Hudson (suicide) | $4.66/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| They never find him | $26.01/ $0.00 | (closed) |
Under what circumstances would “They never find him” pay out?
Theortically never, but since exceptionally long markets are boring, I set this to mature in a year.
So “never” in this case, is defined as 06/12/09 @ 09:37 AM. At which point I will cash out as winner “never find him.”
Basically, this market is to test did he fake his suicide?
This means, of course, that “never+1” has a non imaginary value, so the girl who told me she’ll never date me, is totally fair game on 6/13/08.
thanks
For what it’s worth, authorities have ruled out suicide at this point (see http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/06/feds_suicide_is_painless_swind.php). I think the stock should remain open until he’s found or the market ends, though. Who knows what crazy things might happen? Maybe he’s going to jump into the Hudson, but he hasn’t done it yet.
well, lets just say that a certain stock is predicting that a certain ex hedge fund manager will sneak back from panama (no extradition, you see) into the US, sneak back into New York, and then jump into the Hudson.
Right now, y’all believe that there is an 8% change that that will happen, so who am I to judge…
Girlfriend has been arrested in connection with alleged escape/fake suicide:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/20/business/20bayou.html?ref=business
http://www.nypost.com/seven/06192008/news/regionalnews/ny_swinders_gal_pal_cuffed_116265.htm
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1033491520080610
you deceive investors for a number of years, defraud them of $400 million, and are set to go to jail for 20 years on Monday. Do you: a) jump of a bridge, or b) pretend to jump off a bridge and sail a boat to the Caymans?
Samuel Israel III will have faked suicide on the Bear Mountain Bridge. Like Harrison Ford, the man is a fugitive.
Samuel Israel III will have actually committed suicide by jumping off the Bear Mountain Bridge.
Samuel Israel III’s body, living or breathing, is not found.
I have the market mature in a year, because, well, I’m sure I’ll forget about it by then.