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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| >=290 | $99.06/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| <250 | $0.02/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| 260 - 269 | $0.25/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| 270 - 279 | $0.03/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| 250 - 259 | $0.03/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| 280 - 289 | $0.60/ $0.00 | (closed) |
FREE INKLE IDEA FOR WEEK OF 9/1
When multiple markets exist for the same or equivalent stocks, it is possible to trade the differences in price between the various markets for risk-free profit. This trading strategy is known as arbitrage.
The following markets exist for the outcome of the presidential election and agree within a few inkles:
Will Barack Obama win the 2008 U.S. Election?
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/stocks/42788/trades/new
Who will win the 2008 United States Presidential Election?
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/4071
Which party’s nominee will win the US Presidential election in 2008?
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/3258
A fourth market exists and this fourth market disagrees with the other three:
How many electoral college votes will Barack Obama receive?
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/12632
If you buy 10 shares of Yes/Barack Obama/Democratic Party from any of the first three,
and add 10 shares each of <250, 250-259, 260-269 from the last,
it will cost you $869.20 and pay out $1000 on November 5 regardless of outcome for a profit of $130.80 or 15.0%.
Note that as 270 electoral votes is the equivalent of victory in the presidential election, it is necessary to buy all three options below 270 to completely eliminate your risk.
DISCLAIMER: If I post an idea, it is because I have already established my position in this market up to my self-imposed position limit. That doesn’t mean you can’t make some money too!
This market gives 80+ right now to Obama winning. All the other markets have Obama winning about 70-75 of the time.