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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| Bolt (Nov. 21) | $98.20 | 0.00 |
| 1. Quantum of Solace (~$82M) | $96.98 | 0.00 |
| 2. Madagascar 2 ($81.9M) | $96.27 | 0.00 |
| The Day the Earth Stood Still (Dec. 12) | $95.33 | 0.00 |
| 3. H.S. Musical 3 ($46.7M) | $94.51 | 0.00 |
| Twilight (Nov. 21) | $89.81 | 0.00 |
| The Spirit (Dec. 25) | $70.10 | $8.89 |
| The Tale of Despereaux (Dec. 19) | $68.92 | 0.00 |
| Seven Pounds (Dec. 19) | $47.51 | 0.00 |
| 4. Eagle Eye ($36.9M) | $44.03 | 0.00 |
| Yes Man (Dec. 19) | $40.62 | 0.00 |
| Bedtime Stories (Dec. 25) | $36.08 | 0.00 |
| Benjamin Button (Dec. 19) | $35.90 | 0.00 |
| Four Christmases (Nov. 26) | $26.90 | 0.00 |
| 5. Saw V ($35.7M) | $19.66 | $-7.08 |
| Valkyrie (Dec. 26) | $11.72 | 0.00 |
| 6. Beverly Hills Chihuahua ($35M) | $8.48 | $-1.68 |
| Australia (Nov. 26) | $8.35 | 0.00 |
| Punisher: War Zone (Dec. 5) | $8.35 | 0.00 |
| Marley and Me (Dec. 25) | $8.17 | 0.00 |
| Nothing Like the Holidays (Dec. 12) | $6.94 | 0.00 |
| Hurricane Season (Dec. 25) | $6.94 | 0.00 |
| The Brothers Bloom (Dec. 17) | $4.77 | 0.00 |
| Crossing Over (Dec. 3) | $4.77 | 0.00 |
| Transporter 3 (Nov. 26) | $4.77 | 0.00 |
| Delgo (Dec. 12) | $3.10 | 0.00 |
| 8. Burn After Reading ($25.1M) | $2.25 | 0.00 |
| 10. Righteous Kill ($21.1M) | $1.22 | 0.00 |
| 9. Max Payne ($22.1M) | $1.22 | 0.00 |
| 7. Role Models ($26.4M) | $1.07 | 0.00 |
| An American Carol | $0.87/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Appaloosa | $1.34/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| The Secret Life of Bees | $0.49/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Sex Drive | $0.84/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| How To Lose Friends | $0.71/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Flash of Genius | $0.71/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| The Accidental Husband | $6.94/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Bangkok Dangerous | $5.76/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| The Family That Preys | $0.21/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| The Women | $2.20/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Ghost Town | $8.35/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Igor | $6.94/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Lakeview Terrace | $6.94/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| My Best Friend's Girl | $4.77/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Taken | $5.34/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Blindness | $0.65/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Miracle at St. Anna | $2.11/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Nights in Rodanthe | $1.81/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist | $0.56/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| City of Ember | $1.36/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| The Express | $0.68/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Body of Lies | $3.85/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Quarantine | $0.68/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| W. | $0.16/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Pride & Glory | $1.00/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Zack and Miri Make a Porno | $1.80/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Changeling | $1.80/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| RockNRolla | $2.66/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Soul Men | $0.15/ $0.00 | (closed) |
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Where is Burn After Reading?
It’s on the list now. Thanks.
FREE INKLE IDEA FOR THE WEEK OF 9/15
This idea is a naked short so some risk is involved, but the market is mispricing this stock and I think you can earn some inkles by shorting RocknRolla.
The entertainment press has widely reported that Alan Horn, the president of Warner Brothers, screened this film and hated it. Joel Silver’s contract requires Horn to release the film on 800 screen which qualifies it as a wide release but practically guarantees it will not earn $20M the first week. Even if Horn is wrong about the film, the studio is not going to spend the ad money needed to get this film into the top ten.
DISCLAIMER: I am short RocknRolla. The reason I am sharing this trade with you is that I have reached my self-imposed position limit. Come earn an inkle or two with this trade.
Better yet, short Ghost Town and/or Igor and probably get cashed out by Monday then short Blindness and cash out the next Monday then short Nick and Norahs playlist and Flash of Genius and cash out the next Monday then short The Express and Quarantine cash out and then short Rocknrolla. Some chance one of those will hit the $20MM minimum but you can probably churn shorts in this market every week for a bunch of Inkles.
Definitely. Or if you’re patient and have money to tie up, you could short out all the films ranked 7th through 20th (or as far down the list as you want to go) or so and make a guaranteed tidy profit by year’s end.
This prediction market is based on the box office receipts in the United States for movies released between September 1, 2008, and December 26, 2008. The receipts that count are those received in the first seven days of wide release. (If the movie shows in sneak previews or in limited release, those numbers aren’t included in the total and don’t count as a wide release.) For example, if a film opens on Friday, the numbers that count are those through the following Thursday; if a film opens on a Wednesday, the numbers that count are those through the following Tuesday.
The numbers used in this market are those that can be found at Box Office Mojo. That site has a list of the weekly opening numbers here. Definitions used on that page are the ones that will be used for this market.
If Box Office Mojo ceases operations or no longer provides the needed data, this market will be based on The Numbers.
If a film ranks in the top 10 of opening 7-day receipts, it will cash out at $100. If it fails to make the top 10, it will cash out at $0. An exact tie for 10th place will be resolved in favor of cashing out both films at $100.
Opening dates listed in the market are subject to change. If a film fails to open in wide release (defined by Box Office Mojo as 600 or more theaters) by Dec. 25, 2008, it will cash out at $0.
If a film grosses more than $100 million in its first week of wide release, it will be deemed to be in the top 10. If a film grosses less than $20 million in its first week of wide release, it will be deemed to not be in the top 10. Thus it is theoretically possible (although extremely unlikely) that there will be more or less than 10 winning stocks in this market.
If there is a film that should be on this list and isn’t, please contact the market owner or post a message in the discussion area of this page. Films may be added to the list if new opening dates are announced, or some may be cashed out at $0 if it is announced that an opening date has been postponed.
Shares in any film may be cashed out before the market closes in order to speed payment to traders, and the market owner intends to do so as personal schedules allow. No film will be cashed out before opening-day numbers are available (except for those whose openings have been postponed).
Current rankings, opening dates and dollar amounts in the list may be based on preliminary data and are subject to change. The numbers that count for determining the market payouts are the non-preliminary numbers on Box Office Mojo once they are posted there, not the numbers listed here.