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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| Tampa Bay Rays | $25.51/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Philadelphia Phillies | $21.09/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Boston Red Sox | $19.10/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | $27.85/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Chicago White Sox | $12.79/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Minnesota Twins | $7.45/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Chicago Cubs | $41.29/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Milwaukee Brewers | $9.98/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | $6.00/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | $19.10/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| New York Mets | $17.95/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Other | $4.17/ $0.00 | (closed) |
Other is for you Cardinal and Yankee fans…and any other team not listed.
Is this market constructed correctly? If only two teams play in the World Series, the sum of all stocks in the market should equal 200%. I am shorting the entire market.
I’m not sure markets with multiple correct answers can be set up any other way. Even if the market creator ensures that the initial prices add up to 200 (or, in this case, each of the National and American leagues add up to 100), the first trade that happens throws it out of alignment creating opportunities for free inkles. Only way to avoid this would be to set up separate markets for National and American league representatives.
Rather than shorting everything, what you really need to do is short each the American/National Leagues down to 100 per league. Free inkles until then.
I would note that there are a number of other open markets with the same opportunity. It does tie up a buch of inkles to short everything though.