Virginia.

Bob: In Presidential elections, true official results are not available until January 2nd when the votes of the electoral college are read in Congress. Official results could also refer to when each state certifies the results, usually around three weeks after the election. You could also be referring to the election day count, usually announced on election day, but subject to recounts and corrections. What do you mean by official results?

Thanks Jon, elections are sure messy and I didn’t clarify how this market will handle all the weird cases. I wanted a market for election night.

I’m looking for the actual vote tally, as verified by a precinct’s election judge. I was trying to avoid the guesses from the media but I also don’t want to wait for the validation by Congress or state governments that may take place weeks or months later.

In short, this market is for the election night running total based on actual results. If this year is like previous elections, the major news sources will provide the running total as election results are released.

I’ll use the data as provided by CNN or equivalent to see which state pushes a candidate over the 270 Electoral College vote total.

So watch for the battleground states or western states that close polls late. Toss in the complication of electronic voting vs paper ballots. And whatever gaming that state election officials will do to try to be the state that clinches the election (for example, will Arizona hold off announcing if they can help McCain?)

This question can’t have an objective answer. The only way to claim one state decided the election is to arbitrarily decide that the rest of them are static. There may well be some sort of consensus in the imaginings of journalists that one particular state determined everything, but if so, they’re making it up.

“This question can’t have an objective answer.”

Maybe.

To tighten up the market’s definition, I will use CNN as the official decider. This market will use the state whose electoral vote makes more than 270 total.

As stated earlier, the order of when a state releases actual precinct totals will affect how CNN updates its running tally.

So grab an adult beverage and watch Wolf Blitzer on election night!

CNN, and everyone else, generally “call states” based on incomplete (less than 100% of precincts reported) and uncertified results. Most, if not all, states don’t certify vote tallies until well after the election. For example, Ohio waits until at least November 15th to start the “official canvass” of ballots to ensure all absentee ballots have been received and counted. The Board of Elections is not required to complete the canvass until November 25th after which time, the results become “official”.

Technically, that means that what is released on election night is, while generally accurate, is not “official”. I take it, however, that you are going with the CNN call based on the incomplete and uncertified vote count released on election night as opposed to the criteria laid out in “market information”?