| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| Sold | $61.18/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| No | $13.37/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Yes, and the FED bails them out. | $10.95/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Yes, and there is no FED Bailout | $14.49/ $0.00 | (closed) |
Wamu gets sold, but government involvement, more than brokering a deal, is the question.
We await further clarifications and the WSJ test to determine whether it is a bail, sale, or fail.
WSJ is calling it a brokered sale, saying FDIC didn’t pay out anything in the process.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122247247562180981.html
I am going to cash this out as a fail with no bailout on Wednesday at noon for the following reason:
Without seizure by FDIC, Wamu would not have been sold. The failure of WAMU bank was a necessity for its sale.
Common and bond holders were wiped out, which is characteristic of a fail. Merrill Stock holders received some value for their investment.
Per this article: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_WW5ZH_P_A0&refer=home
Wamu, the holding company, is listing $8 billion in debts, and JPMorgan paid $1.8 billion for the deposits of WAMU bank. Thus, they did not buy the majority of the company.
I will entertain contra argument so these points, but at the current moment, I am leaning towards fail than sale. Making Fail with no bailout the winner.
also: http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
They ended up on the failed bank list.
and yes, i’m just as pissed that the real world failed to conform to the arbitrary rules set forth in my inkles market.
Various sources would argue that Chase did in fact purchase a majority stake. Here’s a sampling:
http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/other/09/26/0926wamu.html
http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/09/26/jp-morgan/
a majority of the assets, i.e. deposits.
Given that a stack of liabilities were left behind…
either way, the common and bond holders were still wiped out.
http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:WM
Hey, guess who’s late to the ball. Will a $2 stock fail?
We wait with baited breath.
The majority of the company is bought by another company. Who can say Bearpoint Morgan Mutual?
You write bad mortgages and equity loans for 5 years and then don’t blow up. Congrats, you win at puzzle bubble.
Bailout in this context being any Federal Reserve or Treasury department intervention that results in an outlay of taxpayer money.
Again, the WSJ test applies here: does the WSJ call it a bailout? Does CNBC spend four days talking about the FED Bailout of WAMU?
standard FDIC coverage obviously doesn’t apply.
Hey, guess who just won the prize for largest bank failure ever!