How many states will align with a different political party in the 2008 U.S. presidential election than they did in 2004? (Inkling Markets Public Marketplace)

How many states will align with a different political party in the 2008 U.S. presidential election than they did in 2004?

Ends: 11/04/08 @ 04:44 PM PST

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Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur.

PREDICTIONS	CURRENT VALUE	TODAY
Nine or more	$34.03/ $100.00	(closed)
Zero	$0.31/ $0.00	(closed)
One	$1.23/ $0.00	(closed)
Two	$0.67/ $0.00	(closed)
Three	$1.23/ $0.00	(closed)
Four	$1.23/ $0.00	(closed)
Five	$2.73/ $0.00	(closed)
Six	$3.34/ $0.00	(closed)
Seven	$26.77/ $0.00	(closed)
Eight	$28.43/ $0.00	(closed)

TAGS

2008 Barack Blue Democrat election John McCain obama President Presidential Red Republican

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discussion

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Chairman Meow trades: 121 • markets run: 2 • member since: 06/05/08

how will you handle NE and ME if they are split?

written: Oct 23 2008 @ 07:35 AM PDT | DISCLOSURE - This user is participating in this market.

mvguy trades: 1265 • markets run: 65 • member since: 06/23/07

I’ll count which candidate gets the at-large electoral votes in that state, or the majority of electoral votes (which would be the same thing).

written: Oct 29 2008 @ 08:03 AM PDT

mvguy trades: 1265 • markets run: 65 • member since: 06/23/07

As of this writing, eight states have switched from red to blue: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana and Virginia.

States that remain in play are Missouri and North Carolina. If Obama wins either one of them (or both), the market will cash out at “nine or more.” If McCain wins both of those states, the market will cash out at “eight.”

written: Nov 05 2008 @ 09:06 AM PST

jongraft trades: 6294 • markets run: 16 • member since: 05/29/07

NBC and Fox have called North Carolina for Obama. That makes 9 switches.

written: Nov 06 2008 @ 10:07 AM PST | DISCLOSURE - This user is participating in this market.

market information

The winning number in this market will be the number of states that voted for John Kerry in 2004 and vote for John McCain in 2008, plus the number of states that voted for George Bush in 2004 and vote for Barack Obama in 2008. For the purposes of this market, Washington, D.C., counts as a state.