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Will Barack Obama be elected to a second term? (early edition)

POSSIBLE ANSWERS PREDICTED CHANCE TODAY
PREDICTED
91.38%
ACTUAL
100.00%

Question ends

November 01, 2012 @ 12:00am PDT
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Predictions Made

1580 (Most: K1050)
Discussion

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job   •   Mon Nov 12 2012 at 10:19am PST
Cash out time!
onedave   •   Wed Nov 07 2012 at 06:47pm PST
Cash out as yes.
SneakyPete   •   Tue Oct 16 2012 at 12:47pm PDT
Romney 50%, Obama 46% Among Likely Voters.

Obama down sharply among men, college grads, and Southern voters vs. 2008.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158048/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=morelink&utm_term=Election 2012 – Government – Political Parties – Politics
It will be interesting if this delcine in voter support for President Obama continues.

job   •   Wed Apr 18 2012 at 02:06pm PDT
Registered voters are evenly split between Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama. The poll finds 46 percent support Mr. Obama, while as many prefer Mr. Romney.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/18/new-poll-romney-and-obama-are-in-a-tight-contest/?hp
admin   •   Fri Jul 03 2009 at 04:19pm PDT
This market was inadvertently closed for awhile. We’ve opened it back up.
alopex   •   Mon Nov 17 2008 at 01:27am PST
this is an interesting market since from an “investment” point of view it is not too attractive to participate due to the long range prediction and thus cash-out horizon. I would be interested to know why the traders who are participating in this one are doing so.
acernera   •   Fri Nov 18 2011 at 01:16pm PST
1. Because its fun. 2. Its one of the few subjects EVERYONE has an opinion on. 3. Because when dealing with large numbers like a national election the results are more predictable

Reasons for Prediction

"just a hunch"
January 28, 2010 @ 09:00pm PST

"The American people don't want a socialist government."
April 07, 2010 @ 03:13pm PDT

"It's the economy stupid."
August 09, 2010 @ 12:16pm PDT

"no way it is that clearly decided already...."
November 05, 2010 @ 12:43pm PDT

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historical trend

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