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Who will win the 2012 U.S. Republican Party presidential nomination?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS PREDICTED CHANCE TODAY
PREDICTED
0.35%
ACTUAL
0.00%
PREDICTED
99.12%
ACTUAL
100.00%
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0.24%
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Question ends

September 01, 2012 @ 12:00pm PDT
Email

Predictions Made

14811 (Most: MFWinAlford)
Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

foobar   •   Thu May 17 2012 at 02:08pm PDT
Ummmm, can we cash this out? I believe the race is over in all but name.
mdrichards   •   Thu May 17 2012 at 07:37pm PDT
It’s not over until the convention. Crazy crap can and has happened. Right now Romney doesn’t have enough delegates to win it outright, and even when he hits 1144, there’s still a chance it could move against him.
amsiegel   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 11:47am PST
Looks like Inkling is tracking pretty closely to the real-money markets on Intrade. Newt is trending upward steadily today and Romney downward, with the other candidates all down as well. Wonder how much of this is just reaction to the media giving Newt a lot more attention recently vs. people’s real beliefs he can take out Romney. Speaking of, really enjoyed reading this article about Mitt “bot” in the NYTimes: Building a Better Mitt Romney-bot
mdrichards   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 12:30pm PST
I wonder if any is because of Herman Cain “suspending” his campaign. I’d imagine not too much at this point.
mvguy   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 02:23pm PST
It’s think it’s because Gingrich seems to be becoming the default not-Romney candidate. But some of Gingrich’s views are so radical — he would in effect overturn Marbury v. Madison — that’s hard for me to imagine he could get the nomination (to say nothing of his personal and ethical baggage).

I tend to think that Romney will end up doing what Obama did in 2008: Use his strong organization to pick up enough delegates to win the nomination even if he isn’t winning commandingly in the primaries. I also think that Romney would be stronger in the general against Obama, and that’s going to work against Gingrich with the party faithful.

mdrichards   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 02:37pm PST
His views are radical on some things, but very moderate on others i.e. immigration. It’s hard to say how it’s going to go here.
mvguy   •   Sun Dec 04 2011 at 09:13am PST
If it were easy to say, one of the candidates would be at 90 percent …

This race is getting more interesting by the day. If Cain were to endorse Gingrich, that could make a big difference — not so much because Cain still has a huge following but because the endorsement would solidify Gingrich’s standing as the non-Romney.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Dec 04 2011 at 09:26am PST
Right on. More intersting each and every day. The “Non-Romney” vote, for whatever the reason, is going to play a determining role in the oucome of this race. Time magazines current cover, says it all, “Why don’t people like me? – Romney”.
SneakyPete   •   Tue Nov 15 2011 at 08:44am PST
Well now that Newt Gingrich is climbing up in the polls, it is turn to be grilled by the media. It seems that the Media and the Democrats want him to be the “Friendly Opposition” in the coming election. They, the media, will have a field day re-hashing old complaints on Newt and his marriages and religion past. O’Well… Here we go again. Wonder whose turn it will be next in the “Barrel”.
foobar   •   Tue Nov 15 2011 at 11:05am PST
I have serious doubts that Gingrich will gain much long-term traction.
chelseaboys   •   Tue Nov 15 2011 at 12:22pm PST
Newt will make the perfect Repub VP. He’s knows alot about the economy, but he is unelectable on his own. The Anti-Biden!
SneakyPete   •   Tue Nov 15 2011 at 12:53pm PST
I agree with both foobar and your comments. Newt would be an excellent VP choice. Would love to watch him and Joe Biden debate. Would be, I believe, a 1st round knock out for Newt. Howeve, the media is already going back in their files to knock Newt out of the Presidential race. He has a lot of dead wood to drag him down.
mdrichards   •   Tue Nov 15 2011 at 04:16pm PST
Debate? No; that would be an intellectual slaughter.
SneakyPete   •   Tue Nov 15 2011 at 05:25pm PST
Yup… you are correct. It would stll be interesting to see.
Best Record   •   Wed Nov 16 2011 at 09:39am PST
chelseaboys   •   Tue Nov 15 2011 at 01:33pm PST
Yeah, he has proven to not be a very good human being. But, who says that is a criterion for a leader of a superpower? We have had many “not very nice guys” lead this country. Lots of philanderers, etc.
amsiegel   •   Mon Nov 14 2011 at 06:42pm PST
It’s interesting how we cycle through various competitors to Romney in the media (Gingrich being the latest) but Romney has held steady at a fairly high probability to win for quite some time and no one else can even break double digits.
mdrichards   •   Mon Nov 14 2011 at 07:04pm PST
Really not sure what you’re talking about here. RCP’s poll average has Romney at 22%, Cain at 21.3%, and Gingrich at 17.6%. That’s plenty of double digits. Perry is almost there at 9.9%. Two months ago it was Perry over 30% with Romney under 20%.
amsiegel   •   Mon Nov 14 2011 at 07:07pm PST
I’m talking about the prices in this prediction market, not the polls.
mdrichards   •   Tue Nov 15 2011 at 03:48am PST
Ah ha! Well, it looks like somebody remedied that situation. :)
SneakyPete   •   Thu Oct 06 2011 at 07:24am PDT
Another one has bit the dust. Sarah Palin has decided not to make a bid for the position.
leto2   •   Sat Sep 24 2011 at 12:39pm PDT
Maybe it’s time to add Chris Christie to this list:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64326.html
ecotax   •   Tue Sep 27 2011 at 02:39pm PDT
Too late, I guess – he falls nicely under ‘Anyone not listed (including Bachmann)’.
mvguy   •   Tue Oct 04 2011 at 07:57am PDT
On these winner-take-all markets, it’s not possible to add new choices to the list without messing up the prices once bidding has begun. So that’s why there’s a “somebody else” option. This market was started quite early in the process, so I’m not surprised there are some candidates not on the list. But I would have never guessed that three of the top six candidates at this point wouldn’t have even been on the radar when I launched the market.
MFWinAlford   •   Thu Aug 25 2011 at 06:28pm PDT
According to the WSJ, Perry is now the “front-runner” — I think that’s Rupert Murdoch’s wishful thinking, but whatever!

“Perry Surge Upends GOP Race
Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s surge in the polls has shaken up the Republican presidential race, emboldening GOP voters who say 2012 is the year a rock-ribbed conservative can win the White House.”

ChloeBurns   •   Sun Aug 07 2011 at 10:30am PDT
Here is how to create a synthetic call on Rick Perry as Republican nominee. Sell 10 shares of Rick Perry to announce @ 79.71. At the same time, buy 40 shares of Rick Perry selected as Republican nominee @ 19.40. If Perry runs, you own cheap shares of his winning the nomination, ($199.71+$727.31)/40 shares =$23.18/share. If he does not run, you still earn a profit, $800.29-$727.31=$72.90. Get paid to hold an option on Rick Perry.
ChloeBurns   •   Wed Jan 04 2012 at 11:34am PST
As foolproof as this trade appeared at the time, it sure ended badly.
Twins Auditor   •   Sun Feb 06 2011 at 01:47pm PST
You all are giving the Republicans too much credit. Pawlenty is far too reasonable of a candidate for the Republicans to consider (and I am saying this as an indepedent).
mdrichards   •   Sat Jul 02 2011 at 09:16am PDT
I agree with that. I just sold my Tim Pawlenty for a profit. Plus Michelle Bachmann is really doing a number on him.
amsiegel   •   Tue Jan 25 2011 at 09:12am PST
With Paul Ryan delivering the rebuttal to the SOTU, he’s got to be considered in the top few on this list (disclosure: I just bought a bunch of Paul Ryan because of this – $0.02 felt way too low right now) He’s also on Drudge today so his name recognition is going up.
MFWinAlford   •   Tue Jan 25 2011 at 09:41am PST
While I agree that Ryan could be a serious contender, he actually seem to be interested in doing his job. Unlike Mike Pence, who is making a serious run. A lot of these people are playing games right now, and some of them will just want to be kingmakers. Things will heat up soon, and we’ll see a cascade of announcements. For me right now, it’s a toss-up between Pence and Pawlenty. A big factor, of course, is whether Palin decides to run or not. My guess is she won’t.
mvguy   •   Thu Jan 27 2011 at 07:14pm PST
And now Pence says he isn’t running. I just came here to sell Pence shares short, but it looks like others have beaten me to it.
Politico   •   Tue Jan 25 2011 at 09:06am PST
Take a look at this Pawlenty video for his book tour. Oh yeah, btw, he’s in NH today. Just a coincidence, of course, that he rolled out this video in the state that holds the 1st Primary!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfkNEq1XioE

leto2   •   Sun Jan 02 2011 at 04:56pm PST
Some recent hints that Jon Huntsman (former governor of Utah, current ambassador to China) may be thinking about running:

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=13856974

He has lots of money, but he’s not very well known.

mvguy   •   Mon Jun 28 2010 at 10:35am PDT
Note to all participants: I have slightly modified the terms of the market in the interest of fairness. As some may have noticed, the market was written in such a way that the market would close after a candidate received enough delegates to win the nomination. The market was structured in this way since there’s no reason to tie up everyone’s inkles once the nomination has been de facto decided. However, it has dawned on me that this could create problems in situations such as occurred with Ronald Reagan’s challenge of Gerald Ford in 1976 or Ted Kennedy’s challenge of Jimmy Carter in 1980. I don’t want to close the market early if there’s still a real campaign of some sort going on — it’s at least theoretically possible that a candidate with a 1-delegate majority could lose the nomination against some sort of an insurgent. It’s also possible that at a brokered convention that a candidate could get the delegates needed and then lose them as deals are made. So I’ve made a slight change to when the market will close in the event of a de facto winner before the convention.

If any participant in the market objects to this change, please let me know, as I can always revert it. But I think this choice is a reasonable and designed to prevent future unfairness. And we’re still far enough away from this possibility that it shouldn’t affect anyone’s standing in the market.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Dec 05 2010 at 11:06am PST
Sounds good to me.
We will have to wait and see what happens at the 2012 Republican National Convention which will be held in Tampa, Florida, starting on August 27, 2012.
rondani   •   Fri Mar 05 2010 at 08:10am PST
I believe SARA will bring it
MFWinAlford   •   Mon Mar 01 2010 at 06:41am PST
I don’t understand the accounting here. In order to figure out how it works, I conducted the following experiment, but I am now just as mystified as ever. Any thoughts?

I had a long position in Lyndsey Graham. My “initial value” was shown to be $2,037.23. I sold it all. Proceeds were $298.51. I then repurchased the same number of shares. Cost was $298.52. Now, I would have expected my “basis” (initial value) to be $298.52. That’s how it would work in the “real” world (on my brokerage statement. (Forgetting the wash sale rule.)

Instead, my “initial value” reverted to $2,037.23. Okay, mystery #1 — where does that number come from?

Then, I purchased an additional 100 shares for $145.53. Adding that to the value just given, I would have expected by basis to be $2182.76. Instead, it is now $2,180.07. So, mystery #2: how come these don’t add up?

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Mar 03 2010 at 01:54pm PST
I’m pleased to note, in this discussion with myself, that the problem has been fixed. Thank you, Inkling Admins! It makes decision-making so much easier when accurate info is at hand…
MFWinAlford   •   Wed Mar 03 2010 at 03:42am PST
LOL! I’m #1 today on “This week’s Leaderboard” (and well deserved, if I do say so myself!), and dead last (#8264) overall. Go figure! At this rate, maybe I’ll be out of debt by the end of the year…
MFWinAlford   •   Thu Feb 11 2010 at 05:48am PST
An interesting article on the Mittster, written by David Bernstein, who says:

In the piece I suggest that Romney is using the publishing of his new book (my review of which will be online later today) to relaunch himself for the 2012 Presidential nomination campaign. This time, he’s de-emphasizing the social issues, and getting much closer to pitching himself as who he really is — but I am skeptical that Republican voters will be looking for someone who fits the description of the “real” Mitt Romney.

The article is here:

New and Improved Romney: http://thephoenix.com/Boston/news/96976-new-and-improved-romney/

He’s more fiscal, less social. And he’s got millions. But will GOP voters give a Mitt?

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Nov 18 2009 at 03:15am PST
I’ve not been sure why this market likes “the Mittster” (as he’s known in one of his former states) so much. Now I may have a better idea, after reading this from David Bernstein:

In [a] previous post, I told you about my exchange with an academic at UCLA who studied candidate attractiveness. Well, it turns out that when you mention Massachusetts to people who study candidate attractiveness, their minds turn to one thing: the beautiful man with the perfect hair, Mitt Romney himself.

Although the study did not include gubernatorial candidates, Romney was entered into the database by virtue of his 1994 campaign for Senate. And — duh! — he turns out to be “among the highest rated politicians in facial quality.”

In fact, gushed lead author Matthew Atkinson in his email to me, “of the hundreds of candidates in our analysis,” only one scored higher than Romney.

And wouldn’t you know it, that one is a likely competitor for the Mittster’s 2012 GOP Presidential nomination: John Thune of South Dakota.

I have to think that Romney’s going to be steamed that there’s a better-looking candidate than him. An empirically, quantifiably better-looking candidate. Ouch!

http://tinyurl.com/yzhwryc

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Nov 14 2009 at 04:44am PST
See the Boston Phoenix’s Talking Politics blog for an interesting “top 25” list — of course, the election cycle is still in its infancy, but it’s fun to watch the evolution of the struggle within the GOP: http://tinyurl.com/yzmxyke

I’ll give the summary list here, but for interesting commentary, go to the link given. Keep in mind that David Bernstein, the author of this list, is a well-respected veteran political observer, and tends to be slightly left of center (for Massachusetts, which puts him way left compared with many other parts of the country!). Yet, when it comes to the GOP, I think he tends to be a fairly dispassionate observer.


1) Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota.
2) Mike Pence, US Representative from Indiana.
3) John Thune, US Senator from South Dakota.
4) Jim DeMint, US Senator from South Carolina.
5) Mitt Romney, former Governor from Massachusetts.
6) Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi.
7) Rick Perry, Governor of Texas.
8) Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana.
9) Jon Kyl, US Senator from Arizona. [not in this market]
10) Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana.
11) Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the US House of Representatives.
12) Eric Cantor, US Representative from Virginia.
13) Bob Corker, US Senator from Tennessee. [not in this market]
14) Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida.
15) Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas.
16) Sarah Palin, former Governor of Alaska.
17) Rick Santorum, former US Senator from Pennsylvania. [not in this market]
18) Paul Ryan, US Representative from Wisconsin.
19) Dirk Kempthorne, former Interior Secretary.
20) Chuck Grassley, US Senator from Iowa. [not in this market]
21) Kay Bailey Hutchison, US Senator from Texas.
22) Michelle Bachmann, US Representative from Minnesota. [not in this market]
23) Lindsey Graham, US Senator from South Carolina.
24) Marco Rubio, former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives. [not in this market]
25) Joe Scarborough, former Congressman from Florida. [not in this market]
Dropping off the list: Jim Douglass [not in this market], Jon Huntsman, Sean Hannity

mvguy   •   Tue Nov 17 2009 at 12:15am PST
That’s an interesting list, and thanks for noting which ones aren’t in the market. I think the writer is pretty much on target for the first six or seven, except that I would have put Huckabee in that upper tier.
MFWinAlford   •   Tue Dec 01 2009 at 03:26pm PST
You may have been right about Huckabee when you made the comment, but recent developments may (!) explain why he won’t be moving up the rankings anytime soon:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/12/cop-killers-impact-on-2012.html
mvguy   •   Tue Dec 01 2009 at 06:39pm PST
Yeah, he’s toast.
mdrichards   •   Wed Dec 02 2009 at 11:57pm PST
I wouldn’t be so sure. When he granted the clemency the guy was sentenced to over 100 years for burglary and robbery at age 16. The trial judge agreed and the prosecutor didn’t object. It seems like a pretty reasonable decision.

Of course that doesn’t mean I think Huckabee is electable at all. I just don’t think this will have a lasting impact.

mvguy   •   Sun Oct 11 2009 at 12:36pm PDT
I was surprised now to see that “anyone not listed” is the top choice, and with a pretty good percentage. So who do y’all think has a chance? I know I couldn’t list all the potential candidates, but it’s hard to think that someone could come completely out of the blue and win the thing.
ChloeBurns   •   Sat Oct 10 2009 at 06:50am PDT
I just discovered this. If you short more than one candidate, the market only locks up enough inkles to cover your maximum loss. If you short 3 candidates x 100 shares, 10000 inkles are required not 30000. Is this new? Could significantly improve ROR for short sellers.
wstritt   •   Sat Oct 10 2009 at 07:27am PDT
It has always worked that way in markets where there is only one answer that can pay out at 100. It’s one of the reasons I have so many trades. Often a lot easier to figure out several things that won’t happen rather than the one that will happen.

Reasons for Prediction

"Fox news show has given him the right kind of exposure"
Mike Huckabee
October 12, 2009 @ 06:17pm PDT

"I can't decide what the move to fox means, but either way the odds are better than 1% she'll be the nominee"
Sarah Palin
January 12, 2010 @ 05:41am PST

"she best represents the overall stupidity in a no-shame manner of most americans"
Sarah Palin
February 10, 2010 @ 09:41am PST

"like her tits"
Sarah Palin
June 30, 2010 @ 10:20pm PDT

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