Which will be the top 10 films at the U.S. box office in 2009?

Available to trade:

TIP: Current value is the chance the answer will be right. For example, $10 = 10% chance answer will be right.

POSSIBLE ANSWERS	CURRENT VALUE	TODAY
The Hangover	$99.66/ $100.00	(closed)
Monsters vs. Aliens	$97.41/ $100.00	(closed)
Star Trek	$99.56/ $100.00	(closed)
Up	$97.46/ $100.00	(closed)
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	$99.25/ $100.00	(closed)
Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs	$96.24/ $100.00	(closed)
Harry Potter/Half-Blood Prince	$99.98/ $100.00	(closed)
The Twilight Saga: New Moon	$99.06/ $100.00	(closed)
Avatar	$99.39/ $100.00	(closed)
The Blind Side	$99.74/ $100.00	(closed)
The Proposal	$0.57/ $0.00	(closed)
The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3	$1.29/ $0.00	(closed)
Gran Torino	$1.82/ $0.00	(closed)
Paul Blart: Mall Cop	$1.34/ $0.00	(closed)
Taken	$0.84/ $0.00	(closed)
Slumdog Millionaire	$0.84/ $0.00	(closed)
X-Men Origins: Wolverine	$1.73/ $0.00	(closed)
Angels & Demons	$1.22/ $0.00	(closed)
Terminator Salvation	$2.66/ $0.00	(closed)
Night/Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian	$0.18/ $0.00	(closed)
Land of the Lost	$1.64/ $0.00	(closed)
Public Enemies	$1.99/ $0.00	(closed)
Michael Jackson's This Is It	$3.01/ $0.00	(closed)
G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra	$0.86/ $0.00	(closed)
Inglourious Basterds	$1.56/ $0.00	(closed)
A Christmas Carol	$0.42/ $0.00	(closed)
2012	$0.45/ $0.00	(closed)
Sherlock Holmes	$0.56/ $0.00	(closed)
Watchmen	$0.27/ $0.00	(closed)
Coraline	$0.82/ $0.00	(closed)
Hannah Montana: The Movie	$1.34/ $0.00	(closed)
The Wolfman	$1.01/ $0.00	(closed)
The Three Stooges	$7.00/ $0.00	(closed)
Planet 51	$3.15/ $0.00	(closed)
Toy Story 2 3D	$3.03/ $0.00	(closed)
Fast & Furious	$1.32/ $0.00	(closed)
District 9	$1.52/ $0.00	(closed)
G-Force	$1.08/ $0.00	(closed)
Funny People	$0.57/ $0.00	(closed)
Brüno	$1.24/ $0.00	(closed)
Where the Wild Things Are	$0.46/ $0.00	(closed)
Toy Story 3D	$2.20/ $0.00	(closed)

Question closing

December 31, 2009 @ 12:00pm PST

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2009 box films Movies Office

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crinite | Fri Mar 13 2009 at 02:00pm PDT

Coraline should be added to this list.

mvguy | Fri Mar 13 2009 at 03:23pm PDT

Consider it done. I don’t think it’s likely to place in the top 10, but you never know.

wstritt | Fri Mar 13 2009 at 03:40pm PDT

I agree on coraline. But where is Hannah Montana:The Movie? Toy Story 3D? The Wolfman? Three Stooges? Planet 51? Avatar?

mvguy | Fri Mar 13 2009 at 08:28pm PDT

They’re there now. Thanks!

AxmxZ | Fri Mar 20 2009 at 08:19pm PDT

Isn’t Sherlock Holmes pretty much apriori not a winner here? It’ll be on screens in 2009 for a grand total of 6 days.

wstritt | Sun Mar 22 2009 at 01:57pm PDT

Excellent point though in theory, it could open big. Dark Knight opening week was $158MM which, alone, would have made it the #9 movie of 2008. Of course that was 7 days, in July and was Batman and bolstered by Heath Ledger’s death…. Don’t know that everyone is anticipating Sherlock but who knows.

Probably a good short.

mvguy | Wed Mar 25 2009 at 03:06pm PDT

I looked back the last three years, and I couldn’t find any films that ended up in the year’s top 10 that opened in December. The closest I could find, and it was a November opening, was last year’s Twilight. There just aren’t that many films that make $150 million in the first week, and those are usually released in the summer.

wstritt | Wed Mar 25 2009 at 05:52pm PDT

Doesn’t bode well for Avatar either then and it is trading ~29 as I write.

wstritt | Sun Mar 22 2009 at 08:38pm PDT

Any thoughts on why Star Trek is so high? The last Star Trek movie that cracked the Top 10 was Star Trek IV in 1986. More recent ones have been relatively dismal. I know it has been 7 years since the last one but are people really that hot for a new Captain Kirk?

mvguy | Mon Mar 23 2009 at 02:26pm PDT

I’ve wondered the same thing. I was a fan of the Star Trek TV series and some of the earlier movies, but after the last two Trek movies were a waste of time I said I’d never see another one.

I also think that Monsters vs. Aliens should be priced higher. It’ll certainly do better than Paul Blart. But I’ve been wrong on my movie predictions before.

ChloeBurns | Fri Mar 27 2009 at 07:54am PDT

Star Trek is trading at $168 on HSX which is roughly equivalent to Angels & Demons at $169 and Up at $160. So other prediction markets confirm this valuation. My guess is the movie is trading primarily on the name of director J.J. Abrams, the popular creator of Lost and Alias.

wstritt | Fri Apr 03 2009 at 10:20am PDT

Never saw HSX before. Interesting.

On Star Trek though, GI Joe is trading around the same price on HSX and, at least at the moment no one here thinks it has a significant chance of making the top 10. Hannah Montana, on the other hand, is trading around $70 on HSX but doing much better here.

Hmmm, I wonder which market is right? Will be interesting to watch how reality unfolds.

mvguy | Sun Apr 05 2009 at 05:05pm PDT

Probably they’re also counting on the star power (pun sort of intended). I have a teenage son who hasn’t ever seen any of the Trek movies or watched the Tv shows, yet he’s planning on seeing this film because of two of the leading actors in the show. The names don’t mean anything to me, but they do to him. It’s a generational thing, I guess.

odysseus | Sat Mar 28 2009 at 06:05pm PDT

As Chloe Burns said, attaching J. J. Abrams to the film has given it a considerable boost. Also, look at the trailer; they’re advertising it as a summer blockbuster (lots of explosions, special fx, attractive young people) that just happens to be Star Trek oriented. They’re trying to appeal to a wider audience, as they know that the Star Trek faithful have been burned too many times-see mvguy’s comment.

mvguy | Sun Mar 29 2009 at 07:35pm PDT

You may be right. Certainly, they’ll have to appeal to the non-Trekkies if they’re going to get a blockbuster. Those of us old enough to remember the original TV shows before they went into reruns aren’t exactly the prime market for movies these days.

mvguy | Fri May 08 2009 at 02:22pm PDT

I just got back from a matinee showing of Star Trek. Not only is it quite good (better than I expected), it was also obviously written with a sequel in mind.

wstritt | Wed Mar 25 2009 at 05:40pm PDT

I know I suggested Three Stooges but this article says Sean Penn was just cast as Larry with shooting to start in the fall. Can’t imagine how it gets released by November much less any time this year at his point if the article is accurate.

mvguy | Sat Mar 28 2009 at 09:58am PDT

That is confirmed on the official site, which now gives an unspecified 2010 opening date.

odysseus | Sat Mar 28 2009 at 06:20pm PDT

Gran Torino should be in the mix. It’s done better than about half the movies in the current top ten are going to do, by my guess

mvguy | Sun Mar 29 2009 at 07:16pm PDT

I didn’t realize how little of its box office total was from 2008. It is basically over its theatrical run but has an impressive total, so I’ve thrown it in there. Thanks!

AxmxZ | Thu May 28 2009 at 10:14am PDT

I kind of wonder why Hangover isn’t there. I mean, it’s a long shot, but surely no longer than Land of the Lost?..

mvguy | Mon Jun 01 2009 at 08:59am PDT

I’m happy to add it to the list.

AxmxZ | Sat Jun 20 2009 at 09:43am PDT

Knew it’ll do well. :)

All right, now how about Proposal? I don’t think it’ll rank in the top 10, but it’s got a better chance than a lot of other films on the list.

mvguy | Sat Jun 20 2009 at 01:07pm PDT

I don’t think it had a strong enough of an opening night to make it in the top 10, but since it’s likely the weekend’s No. 1 film I’m happy to throw it in the mix.

AxmxZ | Sat Jun 20 2009 at 01:17pm PDT

Meh, you never know.

mvguy | Mon Jul 13 2009 at 01:01pm PDT

True. “Taken” and “Blart” didn’t start out all that strong, and they’re still in the top 10.

AxmxZ | Sat Jun 20 2009 at 10:38am PDT

Night at the Smithsonian was at 147.2 on 6/17 & is projected to be at 150.8 – you must’ve meant “6/21”.

mvguy | Sat Jun 20 2009 at 12:55pm PDT

Yep. It’s correct now.

mvguy | Thu Jul 02 2009 at 09:24am PDT

So players can get access to their inkles more quickly, I’m going to start cashing out films that reach $250 million. This doesn’t change the market description, however. If by some fluke it starts looking like more than a half-dozen films will gross that much, I’ll quit the early cashouts. But that seems unlikely; last year just three films reached that mark, and it looks like the number this year will likely be four or five, almost certainly not more than that.

wstritt | Wed Jul 15 2009 at 04:28pm PDT

It’s Wednesday evening. Hasn’t Harry Potter hit the magic $250MM yet?

mvguy | Sat Jul 18 2009 at 12:34pm PDT

No, but it did have an amazing first day.

AxmxZ | Mon Jul 20 2009 at 04:53am PDT

Boy, did Bruno ever flop…

sbalen | Mon Jul 20 2009 at 05:00am PDT

It had a lot of things going against it: It was a British production, a NC-17 rating (I know: Accompanied with an R-rated version, but still) and Borat (closest bench mark i.m.h.o.) wasn’t in the top 10 either in it’s year of release.

AxmxZ | Mon Jul 20 2009 at 05:03am PDT

I’m sure the fact that it’s an unfunny piece of crap didn’t help that second-weekend drop any either.

sbalen | Mon Jul 20 2009 at 05:07am PDT

Haven’t seen it,It does get mixed reviews… however IMDB is more positive about it then say X-men Wolverine.

mvguy | Mon Jul 20 2009 at 12:25pm PDT

One of my sons saw it (against my advice) and thought it was stupid.

AxmxZ | Tue Jul 21 2009 at 07:01pm PDT

Question – how come District 9 isn’t on the list? I think it might possibly break out! Not likely but likelier than some of the stuff on here.

mvguy | Wed Jul 22 2009 at 02:20pm PDT

I added it to the list.

AxmxZ | Sun Aug 16 2009 at 08:22am PDT

Having seen it yesterday, I’m eager to see how it does in the theaters. Its word of mouth should be spectacular.

AxmxZ | Sat Jul 25 2009 at 10:21am PDT

G-Force is about to open with 35 million or so – if it has staying power, it could go places!

mvguy | Thu Aug 06 2009 at 09:06pm PDT

I dare you to be the first to put some money on it.

AxmxZ | Thu Aug 06 2009 at 09:18pm PDT

I said that before even the first weekend numbers came in. Its performance since then has been lackluster.

mvguy | Fri Aug 07 2009 at 12:23pm PDT

True. I put it in the mix anyway. I figure if it looks like it’s going to be in at least the top 20 it’s worth considering, even if briefly. I’ll cash it out, though, once some newer movie passes it, and that’ll probably be “G.I. Joe.”

odysseus | Wed Aug 12 2009 at 10:17pm PDT

The Wolfman has been pushed back to February 12th (http://www.thewolfmanmovie.com/)

mvguy | Fri Aug 14 2009 at 02:19pm PDT

Thanks for letting me know! I’ve cashed it out.

mvguy | Fri Nov 27 2009 at 03:09pm PST

I don’t think it has much of a chance of making into the top 10, but I’ve thrown “The Blind Side” into the mix. It’s off to a good start, has good word-of-mouth, is a good family film for the holidays, and will almost certainly make it into the top 20 or better. Another Sandra Bullock film, “The Proposal,” got off to a slower start than “The Blind Side” and is currently the year’s No. 11 movie, so it’s a worthy long shot.

theycallmemorty | Tue Dec 01 2009 at 09:33am PST

This was a lot of fun and I’d love to see it done for 2010. (I don’t have the expertise to do it myself.

mvguy | Tue Dec 01 2009 at 06:29pm PST

It doesn’t require all that much expertise. To do it the way I’ve done it, though, it does require plenty of maintenance.

And 2009 isn’t over. I see that “Smithsonian” has dropped to having about a 50-50 chance, so there are still plenty of inkles to be made by someone.

chelseaboys | Sat Dec 19 2009 at 11:08am PST

How do you say approx 80 mil for Avatar (as of 12/20) when it’s still the 19th!?!

AxmxZ | Sat Dec 19 2009 at 11:39am PST

It’s just the estimate for the opening weekend from the 27m being reported for Friday. Personally I think it will be around 75m.

mvguy | Sat Dec 19 2009 at 02:15pm PST

You’re right. The tilde (~) is to indicate it’s just an estimate, and in this case maybe not a very good one at that. I intend to update the estimate Sunday when the studios give their estimates, but the Sunday numbers won’t be official until Monday.

And the last half of December is turning out to be more interesting than I would have predicted. The No. 10 spot is definitely up for grabs, and I don’t even think that “The Blind Side” is completely out of the running (close, perhaps).

mvguy | Tue Dec 22 2009 at 05:12pm PST

After seeing Monday’s numbers, I’m predicting a 9th-place finish for Avatar and a 10th-place finish for The Blind Side. If I were participating in this market, I’d sell X-Men short.

wstritt | Tue Dec 22 2009 at 05:39pm PST

Based on the pattern of I am Legend (12 days to get to $150MM), I would have guessed no on Avatar but based on Monday, it looks like it may be well ahead of that pace.

wstritt | Tue Dec 22 2009 at 05:43pm PST

I’ll bite though…maybe I can lose as much as I did last year shorting Valkyrie.

mvguy | Tue Dec 22 2009 at 06:11pm PST

I remember that.

odysseus | Tue Dec 22 2009 at 05:59pm PST

National Treasure 2 is a more telling comparison. It was released on the 21st (ie the same weekend) and proceeded to earn 150MM in two weeks/the time Avatar has left- after an opening weekend of “only” 44.7MM (and without Avatar’s spectacular word of mouth).

j.midtown | Tue Dec 22 2009 at 08:19pm PST

Avatar’s opening weekend was handicapped by the snow on the east coast. It’s gonna have great legs, not just from word of mouth, but delayed demand from the storm and Christmas Day (a traditionally strong movie day) falling on Friday creating what will likely be a very strong movie weekend generally. Just wish I’d gotten back to buy some more cheap shares before you guys bid it up! :-)

theycallmemorty | Wed Dec 23 2009 at 05:30am PST

I don’t see Smithsonian or Wolverine losing their spot in the top 10, but I’ve already poured $10,000 into that theory and don’t really have the guts to put my money where my mouth is.

sbalen | Wed Dec 23 2009 at 07:09am PST

@ theycallmemorty
I poured about 10 times that amount in the same theory, needless to say I have been in kind of a squeeze the last couple of days, but I still think we have a good chance.
This market seems a bit sensitive to hypes and high hopes. I doubt Avatar’s legs, since it fits the profile of a good starter (big fan base, scifi, etc). IMHO, The Blind Side, family orientated as it is, stands a better chance.

odysseus | Wed Dec 23 2009 at 04:27pm PST

Oh, was that you? I poured about the same amount into Avatar, but I have the advantage of (almost certainly) being right. It should cash out on Sunday, but we’ll see. As for the Blind Side, it has been performing very strongly. However, it’s been in theaters for more than a month now and is going to lose a lot of its screens (19%) to the five(!) new wide releases this weekend. Its fate remains uncertain

mvguy | Thu Dec 24 2009 at 06:20am PST

The record of The Blind Side shows what good word of mouth can do. I think it’ll end up in the top 10, but, as you say, there are no certainties here. That’s we we have prediction markets!

mvguy | Sat Dec 26 2009 at 11:05am PST

The updated numbers I have just posted (the ones preceded by a tilde) are based on third-party weekend projections. They are not definite, and you should not base any market decisions on the assumption that they are correct. I will update with better figures as they become available. The next official report probably will come Monday afternoon PST.

When and if final box office numbers (not studio projections) show Avatar and/or The Blind Side pulling ahead of X-Men and/or Smithsonian, I will cash out the market accordingly.

chelseaboys | Mon Dec 28 2009 at 02:16pm PST

Great Market, enjoyed playing even though I got my ass kicked at the end!

wstritt | Mon Dec 28 2009 at 02:40pm PST

I enjoyed as well. Thanks mvguy.

j.midtown | Mon Dec 28 2009 at 02:46pm PST

Agree, except I was kickin’ instead of getting kicked. ;-) Lots of fun, mvguy; thanks!

chelseaboys | Mon Dec 28 2009 at 03:24pm PST

I did better around summer blockbuster time, but Avatar messed me up. Is there a way to check overall performance for this market? Not being the marketmaker, I’m not sure how (except by checking all of my closed trades…)

theycallmemorty | Tue Dec 29 2009 at 05:29am PST

It would be awesome if he could post the performance of the few people that post here.

mvguy | Tue Dec 29 2009 at 08:07am PST

I don’t feel comfortable giving out the information about individual performances from the “top traders” page without permission, but I can give some general stats:

There were 54 active traders at market close. Of those, 39 gained money.

The top three winners gained $246,602.42, $171,167.51 and $82,441.28.

The biggest losses were $-5,558.71, $-7,678.90 and $-8,303.71.

I assume these numbers include only the shares people had at market close, so it doesn’t take into account wins and losses during the course of the market, if I understand right how that page works.

If anyone here wants your numbers posted, I’d be happy to oblige.

AxmxZ | Tue Dec 29 2009 at 10:00am PST

I’d love to know my numbers. I got seriously burned on Avatar and Smithsonian.

mvguy | Wed Dec 30 2009 at 07:36am PST

You ended up on top of the chart, gaining $246,602.42.

wstritt | Tue Dec 29 2009 at 02:16pm PST

I wouldn’t mind knowing my performance though I’m not sure how accurate those numbers are. Aside from the issue you note, in one of my open markets, one of the traders is shown as being up more than 600,000 inkles which 1) as best I can tell, is impossible in that particular market and 2) when I asked the trader if it was accurate (and how they did it if it was), they thought they were up but by nowhere near that amount.

mvguy | Wed Dec 30 2009 at 07:35am PST

You showed a gain of $45,286.17. There have been times I’ve compared the performances before and after cashing out a market, and the numbers haven’t always made sense.

theycallmemorty | Wed Dec 30 2009 at 06:42am PST

I’d love to know my results. I bet I’m the -5,558.71. :(

mvguy | Wed Dec 30 2009 at 07:33am PST

Nope. You showed a gain of $3,172.86. You must have cut your losses before I cashed out the market.

j.midtown | Wed Dec 30 2009 at 07:29am PST

Hmm… so my kickin’ was apparently relative to my personal overall holdings. LOL I did post some pretty nice gains in this market however and have done very well overall for the year here on Inkling.

mvguy | Tue Dec 29 2009 at 09:21am PST

I’ve launched a new market for 2010. It will be available as soon as the administrators approve it. If you see any films that should be in the list but aren’t (which is likely), let me know.

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Why did you trade this way?

"The market might be fat, the real blockbuster aren't released yet, yet this seems pretty cheap considering it's performance"
while trading Taken on April 14, 2009 @ 03:17am PDT

"Already below the top 10"
while trading X-Men Origins: Wolverine on December 27, 2009 @ 12:35pm PST

"Star Trek this high? My guess it's biased by the internet savvy crowd from inkling"
while trading Star Trek on April 14, 2009 @ 03:11am PDT

"Already made 1/2 the amount required (my guess is 150-170 MM)"
while trading Night/Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian on May 26, 2009 @ 06:45pm PDT

"this movie is going to be good "
while trading Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on April 20, 2009 @ 04:46am PDT

"First movie not that good"
while trading Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on May 26, 2009 @ 06:46pm PDT

"Still think this will be a big dissapointmeny .. but could be wrong .. worst case its at 95 now"
while trading Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on June 22, 2009 @ 07:21pm PDT

"That was a wrong guess .. amazed how big Transformers 2 weekend was"
while trading Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on June 29, 2009 @ 09:39am PDT

"Changed my mind: It stands a fair chance, but the market is fat as it is now"
while trading Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs on April 14, 2009 @ 03:13am PDT

"Wonder if have been too many Ice Ages"
while trading Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs on June 29, 2009 @ 09:53am PDT

"Wish I covered short last weekend"
while trading Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs on July 14, 2009 @ 10:07am PDT

"Tarantino might be laurelled, he isn't really a box office succes (usually)"
while trading Inglourious Basterds on April 14, 2009 @ 03:22am PDT

"Come on, Twilight?? How can this NOT be in the top 10."
while trading The Twilight Saga: New Moon on June 02, 2009 @ 04:39pm PDT

"OMG, can kids get more crazy about a movie"
while trading The Twilight Saga: New Moon on November 18, 2009 @ 08:09am PST

"Judging by it's predecessor it stands a good chance, but given that I had never heard of the series and that it only has about 5 weeks to catch up 95% seems pretty high"
while trading The Twilight Saga: New Moon on November 20, 2009 @ 01:59am PST

"Its a re-release in a format with very few theatres .. it might do OK but won't make the $150 MM required for top 10 box office"
while trading Toy Story 2 3D on June 03, 2009 @ 12:00am PDT

"Re-release in a limited # of theatres"
while trading Toy Story 2 3D on July 14, 2009 @ 09:56am PDT

"imho: decent underdog"
while trading The Proposal on August 10, 2009 @ 06:13am PDT

Background information

In this market you are asked to predict which films will rank in the top 10 at the U.S. box office during 2009. The number is based on the total earned during the calendar year ending Dec. 31.

The market will be cashed out based on the numbers listed as Box Office Mojo. If Box Office Mojo ceases to provide the numbers, the cashout will be based on The Numbers.

Other films may be added to the list throughout the year. If you would like a film added to the list, please post in the comments section or send en e-mail to the market creator.

If a film’s opening is delayed beyond the end of 2009, it will cash out at $0. Other films may also cash out early if their box-office records indicate that they will clearly rank below 10th place among the films that have already opened. If a film reaches $300 million, it will automatically cash out at $100. Thus it is theoretically possible, although extremely unlikely, for more than 10 films to cash out at $100.