I find it interesting that Al Gore is priced so high. Since he has made no obvious moves to run for the presidential nomination, it must reflect highly on his chances if he does decide to run.

Where’s Barack Obama?!

I asked the Obama question before he came out with his book, and the market maker had said that he based it entirely on those that had formed exploratory committees, which was a very plausible answer.

My “field” investment has octupled.

I managed to change the “Field” to Barack Obama and add a new “Field” choice at $0.00. Let me know if there are any problems with this.

For everyone’s interest, no contracts will be closed out until the actual primary season (spring 2008). Even though a number of candidates have declared they aren’t running, there is plenty of time for them to change their mind. In other words, there is a good potential to “short” these candidates to make some inkles.

I disagree with the decision not to close the markets in certain candidates. While I accept that people change their minds, this is usually more “2004: No”, “2005: Maybe”, “2006: Probably”, etc. Someone who’s said at the end of 2006 or the start of 2007 that they’re not running… isn’t going to run, at least not in 2008.

In the meantime, the market ends up being inaccurate. I have a short position in Evan Bayh. If there was some chance of him being cashed out at some point soon, I’d keep (and maybe extend) that position. Shorting him from 3% down to 0.5% takes a lot of capital (to cover the position) for little potential gain. I’m not prepared to keep that capital tied up until spring 2008. If the contracts are going to stay open, I’ll close my short position, which will put the Evan Bayh contract 1% higher. So, unless someone’s got capital to burn, you’re left with Evan Bayh sitting at ~4% until 2008 whilst his chance of being selected is, realistically, zero.

Is there a deadline after which no more candidates will be added? If not, it seems that the field stock can almost never win, because as soon as someone not named appears popular, they will be added.

For example, suppose I think the obscure state senator Pat T. Fakename is sure to win the nomination. I buy the field stock heavily. But when Pat starts making it into the headlines, the market manager could add a stock for Senator Fakename, and I’d be stuck with a lot of field shares representing candidates I never believed in and no reward for predicting Pat’s success.

This seems like a tricky problem, and I’m not faulting the market manager for the handling so far (with Obama). But an explicit policy for cases like this would help.

I can guarantee that no more candidates will be added.

I’m back…with thanks for how you handled the “field/Obama” thing. Here’s my latest q: why did field go up so much today? Is there another guy or gal out there who is hinting at a run?

Looking for more political markets?

Where will Boston City Hall be moved?

Which party will win the 2008 Presidential elections?

Who will be the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee?

Who will be the Republican Vice Presidential nominee?

Who will win the 2008 Presidential Election?

Please see my other 2008 election markets:

• Control of House of Reps
• Control of Senate
• Seats in House of Reps
• Seats in Senate

Wow. John Edwards looks very cheap. He is polling very well in Des Moines which could be enough to pull him through a very tight primary calendar.

not to be inflammatory, but why isn’t dennis kucinich included?

What about Mike Gravel?

Dodd and Biden have dropped out.

Richardson is out: AP Says Richardson Out

Until a candidate themselves declares themselves out of the running, their contract will not be closed.

I just bought 2000 shares of “field of candidates” for 0.0. That’s right, I got them for free. It’s a long shot, I know, but that was rather risk-free :-)

Not a bad idea. In the event of a brokered convention, maybe someone other than Hillary or Barack will get the nod in the interest of party harmony. Free options are always worth the price.