How many banks will fail in 2009?

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POSSIBLE ANSWERS	PREDICTED CHANCE	TODAY
101-105 (closed)	PREDICTED 3.48%	ACTUAL 0.00%
106-110 (closed)	PREDICTED 3.56%	ACTUAL 0.00%
111-115 (closed)	PREDICTED 0.98%	ACTUAL 0.00%
116-125 (closed)	PREDICTED 0.25%	ACTUAL 0.00%
126 or more (closed)	PREDICTED 99.75%	ACTUAL 100.00%
75 or fewer (closed)	PREDICTED 2.05%	ACTUAL 0.00%
76-85 (closed)	PREDICTED 1.02%	ACTUAL 0.00%
86-90 (closed)	PREDICTED 0.78%	ACTUAL 0.00%
91-95 (closed)	PREDICTED 1.94%	ACTUAL 0.00%
96-100 (closed)	PREDICTED 2.62%	ACTUAL 0.00%

Question ends

December 31, 2009 @ 12:00pm PST

created by

wstritt (all their questions)

Predictions Made

252 (Most: markettalk)

Discussion

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Date

AxmxZ • Sat Aug 15 2009 at 04:14pm PDT

Aug 15th – “In total, 77 banks have failed so far this year.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/over-wins-5-banks-fail-2009-8

wstritt • Sun Aug 16 2009 at 05:49pm PDT

Thanks for the reminder. I had forgotten the first cut-off point.

wstritt • Sun Sep 06 2009 at 07:55am PDT

89 and counting

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09165.html

wstritt • Fri Sep 11 2009 at 08:15pm PDT

Up to 92 as of 9/11/09

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09170.html

wstritt • Sat Oct 03 2009 at 01:33pm PDT

Now up to 98

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09181.html

wstritt • Fri Oct 23 2009 at 03:23pm PDT

We are now up to 103 bank failures in 2009.

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09189.html

wstritt • Sat Oct 24 2009 at 02:14pm PDT

Actually, 106. I missed the last 3 announcements yesterday.

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09192.html

MFWinAlford • Wed Oct 28 2009 at 07:54am PDT

What happens if it’s exactly 115? There are two stocks with that number in them.

wstritt • Thu Oct 29 2009 at 02:38pm PDT

Nice catch. Based on the pattern of the other stocks, the intent was that the 115-125 range should actually have been 116-125. Before I change the stock to reflect that however, I thought it worth asking if anyone had any objections.

Frankly, I doubt that hitting 115 on the nose will be an issue as my guess is that we will blow by that number. However, any objections anyone?

MFWinAlford • Thu Oct 29 2009 at 03:30pm PDT

Yes, I agree it’s highly unlikely to hit that number exactly, but I guess the Aspergerian perfectionist in me just couldn’t let it go by… ;)

wstritt • Sat Oct 31 2009 at 07:41am PDT

9 more this week bringing total to 115.

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09195.html

I imagine the old overlap in “115” stocks will be moot by next week.

MFWinAlford • Fri Nov 27 2009 at 03:26pm PST

“Pacific Coast National Bank is the 123rd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year…”
http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09207.html
Looks like 126+ is nearly a done deal!

wstritt • Fri Nov 27 2009 at 09:47pm PST

That would have been my guess for several weeks now. Next Friday’s announcements probably puts it over the top.

wstritt • Sat Dec 05 2009 at 05:24am PST

130 and counting.

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09224.html

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Background information

As of July 3rd, the FDIC has closed 52 banks in 2009. How many banks in total will be closed by the FDIC in 2009?

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html will be the source for the final tally.

Stocks will cash out when no longer possible.

Note: Final cash out will may not occur until first week of January 2010 to ensure the FDIC website has been updated over the holidays.

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