How many banks will fail in 2009?

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POSSIBLE ANSWERS	PREDICTED CHANCE	TODAY
101-105 (closed)	PREDICTED 3.48%	ACTUAL 0.00%
106-110 (closed)	PREDICTED 3.56%	ACTUAL 0.00%
111-115 (closed)	PREDICTED 0.98%	ACTUAL 0.00%
116-125 (closed)	PREDICTED 0.25%	ACTUAL 0.00%
126 or more (closed)	PREDICTED 99.75%	ACTUAL 100.00%
75 or fewer (closed)	PREDICTED 2.05%	ACTUAL 0.00%
76-85 (closed)	PREDICTED 1.02%	ACTUAL 0.00%
86-90 (closed)	PREDICTED 0.78%	ACTUAL 0.00%
91-95 (closed)	PREDICTED 1.94%	ACTUAL 0.00%
96-100 (closed)	PREDICTED 2.62%	ACTUAL 0.00%

Question ends

December 31, 2009 @ 12:00pm PST

created by

wstritt (all their questions)

Predictions Made

252 (Most: markettalk)

Discussion

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AxmxZ • Sat Aug 15 2009 at 04:14pm PDT

Aug 15th – “In total, 77 banks have failed so far this year.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/over-wins-5-banks-fail-2009-8

wstritt • Sun Aug 16 2009 at 05:49pm PDT

Thanks for the reminder. I had forgotten the first cut-off point.

wstritt • Sun Sep 06 2009 at 07:55am PDT

89 and counting

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09165.html

wstritt • Fri Sep 11 2009 at 08:15pm PDT

Up to 92 as of 9/11/09

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09170.html

wstritt • Sat Oct 03 2009 at 01:33pm PDT

Now up to 98

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09181.html

wstritt • Fri Oct 23 2009 at 03:23pm PDT

We are now up to 103 bank failures in 2009.

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09189.html

wstritt • Sat Oct 24 2009 at 02:14pm PDT

Actually, 106. I missed the last 3 announcements yesterday.

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09192.html

MFWinAlford • Wed Oct 28 2009 at 07:54am PDT

What happens if it’s exactly 115? There are two stocks with that number in them.

wstritt • Thu Oct 29 2009 at 02:38pm PDT

Nice catch. Based on the pattern of the other stocks, the intent was that the 115-125 range should actually have been 116-125. Before I change the stock to reflect that however, I thought it worth asking if anyone had any objections.

Frankly, I doubt that hitting 115 on the nose will be an issue as my guess is that we will blow by that number. However, any objections anyone?

MFWinAlford • Thu Oct 29 2009 at 03:30pm PDT

Yes, I agree it’s highly unlikely to hit that number exactly, but I guess the Aspergerian perfectionist in me just couldn’t let it go by… ;)

wstritt • Sat Oct 31 2009 at 07:41am PDT

9 more this week bringing total to 115.

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09195.html

I imagine the old overlap in “115” stocks will be moot by next week.

MFWinAlford • Fri Nov 27 2009 at 03:26pm PST

“Pacific Coast National Bank is the 123rd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year…”
http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09207.html
Looks like 126+ is nearly a done deal!

wstritt • Fri Nov 27 2009 at 09:47pm PST

That would have been my guess for several weeks now. Next Friday’s announcements probably puts it over the top.

wstritt • Sat Dec 05 2009 at 05:24am PST

130 and counting.

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/pr09224.html

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Background information

As of July 3rd, the FDIC has closed 52 banks in 2009. How many banks in total will be closed by the FDIC in 2009?

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html will be the source for the final tally.

Stocks will cash out when no longer possible.

Note: Final cash out will may not occur until first week of January 2010 to ensure the FDIC website has been updated over the holidays.

Inkling Public Site

How many banks will fail in 2009?

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