Which economist will receive the Nobel Prize for Economics (the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences) on 10/12/09?

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POSSIBLE ANSWERS	PREDICTED CHANCE	TODAY
Ernst Fehr (closed)	PREDICTED 3.18%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Eugene Fama (closed)	PREDICTED 19.26%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Graciela Chichilinsky (closed)	PREDICTED 1.43%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Hirofuni Uzawa (closed)	PREDICTED 1.43%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Jean Tirole (closed)	PREDICTED 3.18%	ACTUAL 0.00%
John B. Taylor (closed)	PREDICTED 3.45%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Jordi Gali (closed)	PREDICTED 1.43%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Mark L. Gertler (closed)	PREDICTED 2.13%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Martin L. Weitzman (closed)	PREDICTED 1.43%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Matthew J. Rabin (closed)	PREDICTED 1.43%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Nicholas Stern (closed)	PREDICTED 1.43%	ACTUAL 0.00%
None of the above (closed)	PREDICTED 19.66%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Oliver Williamson (closed)	PREDICTED 3.18%	ACTUAL 100.00%
Paul Romer (closed)	PREDICTED 4.21%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Richard Thaler (closed)	PREDICTED 7.08%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Robert Barro (closed)	PREDICTED 3.18%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Robert Shiller (closed)	PREDICTED 7.08%	ACTUAL 0.00%
William D. Nordhaus (closed)	PREDICTED 15.77%	ACTUAL 0.00%

October 12, 2009 @ 01:00pm PDT

164 (Most: ChloeBurns)

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wstritt • Thu Oct 08 2009 at 10:18am PDT

The betting line:

http://www.ladbrokes.com/lbr_sports?action=go_generic_link&level=EVENT&key=213587809&category=SPECIALS&subtypes=&default_sort=&tab=undefined

wstritt • Thu Oct 08 2009 at 03:06pm PDT

Link seems to be broken and no bet longer on Ladbrookes. For last odds when it was there, try this

"has won multiple awards - has to be considered at higher odds than 6% favorite!"
Eugene Fama
October 07, 2009 @ 05:40am PDT

"no way in hell they give it to a financial economist this year"
Eugene Fama
October 07, 2009 @ 01:03pm PDT

"His work has contributed more to economics than that of other candidates."
Robert Shiller
October 12, 2009 @ 05:01am PDT

"nudge baby nudge"
Richard Thaler
October 11, 2009 @ 08:37pm PDT

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Below are a list of possible contenders, listed in alphabetical order, gathered from various sites around the Web (Thomson Reuters, Ladbrokes Bookmakers, EconoSpeak).