Will Steve Jobs announce an "iPhone" in January 2007 at Macworld Expo? (Inkling's Public Prediction Markets)

Will Steve Jobs announce an "iPhone" in January 2007 at Macworld Expo?

Question will be judged on: 01/09/07 @ 09:00 AM PST

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Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur.

PREDICTIONS	CURRENT VALUE	TODAY
iPhone	$90.62/ $100.00	(closed)

TAGS

Apple cellular handset iPhone

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discussion

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cwtapp trades: 1788 • markets run: 16 • member since: 11/13/06

I’m assuming that because you put “iPhone” in quotations, that the phone must be called an “iPhone?”

written: Dec 20 2006 @ 12:32 PM PST | DISCLOSURE - This user is participating in this market.

JohnnyFan trades: 3 • markets run: 1 • member since: 12/16/06

It probably can’t be called iPhone since Cisco owns that trademark and has already released an iPhone product.

http://www.engadget.com/2006/12/18/cisco-not-apple-announces-iphone-branded-voip-phones/

written: Dec 21 2006 @ 02:54 AM PST | DISCLOSURE - This user is participating in this market.

F1k3aPDp trades: 1 • markets run: 0 • member since: 12/22/06

since the contract specifies “iPhone” in quotes, i don’t think that the actual trademark is part of the contract. i think the meaning is that apple will enter the cellphone market with some kind of phone device, whatever the name. or am i misinterpreting the contract?

written: Dec 22 2006 @ 11:57 AM PST | DISCLOSURE - This user is participating in this market.

Hamish.MacEwan trades: 47 • markets run: 1 • member since: 09/15/06

Regret not tracking the discussion more closely, but I used the quotes to indicate a class of product rather than a specific brand name. Whatever its called, it is an “iPhone” and that was the term Jobs used in the presentation.

I note the market has closed, by date/time I guess, but am working on making sure the close price is as the contract specified.

written: Jan 09 2007 @ 11:56 AM PST

stock information

iPhone

There are rumours that Apple has ordered iPhone (an Apple-branded cellular handset) hardware and “The most recent rumours claim Apple CEO Steve Jobs may show the handset off at Macworld Expo early in January 2007. If it is just one handset – it’s been widely speculated that Apple may have two mobile phone models up its sleeve.”

http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2006/11/15/apple_iphone_contract_claim/

If an iPhone is announced the cash-out value will be set to $100 as soon as the announcment is made, otherwise shareprice will be $0.

(Thanks to the other market managers who’ve contributed at http://forum.inklingmarkets.com/ and Adam Siegel for helping out with this, my first attempt.)