Iraq withdrawal and civilian casualties (Inkling's Public Prediction Markets)

Iraq withdrawal and civilian casualties

Question will be closed on: 01/01/08 @ 12:00 AM PST

TIP:

Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur.

PREDICTIONS	CURRENT VALUE	TODAY
USLEAV07 false AND >= 100k IBC EOY 2007	$37.00/ $37.00	(closed)
USLEAV07 false AND < 100k IBC EOY 2007	$37.00/ $37.00	(closed)
USLEAV07 true AND >= 100k IBC EOY 2007	$14.29/ $14.29	(closed)
USLEAV07 true AND < 100k IBC EOY 2007	$11.69/ $11.69	(closed)

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adam | November 27, 2006 @ 09:34 AM PST

What is the definition of civil war? Some would argue there is already a civil war going on since more than 1000 people have died and there are two factions fighting internally for control in multiple areas. Can the market maker clarify please?

mlinksva | November 27, 2006 @ 09:46 AM PST

Some people are describing current happenings as civil war but escalating sectarian violence is the term I’ve seen used more often, perhaps that is changing rapidly.

The point of this market (and the improved version) is to predict whether US withdrawal would make the violence worse, regardless of what it is called. If deaths increased drastically as specified by the +CW stocks there would be no debating that a civil war had occurred or is ongoing.

mlinksva | November 29, 2006 @ 09:35 PM PST

Please see http://home.inklingmarkets.com/market/show/2554 for the market that replaced this one, including an explanation of why.

price chart

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Background information

What is the impact U.S. withdrawal from Iraq as specified by http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 on Iraqi civil war (specified by lower bound of at least 100k deaths published by http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ on Jan 1, 2008).

More information about the possible answers

USLEAV07 false AND >= 100k IBC EOY 2007

No Withdrawal + Civil War

http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is NOT judged at 100 (meaning there are 100k or more US troops in Iraq in April 2007 or no information available) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is >= 100k.

USLEAV07 false AND < 100k IBC EOY 2007

No Withdrawal and NO civil war

USLEAV07 true AND >= 100k IBC EOY 2007

Withdrawal + Civil War

http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is judged at 100 (meaning there are less than 100k US troops in Iraq in April 2007) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is >= 100k.

USLEAV07 true AND < 100k IBC EOY 2007

Withdrawal and NO civil war