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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| USLEAV07 false AND >= 100k IBC EOY 2007 | $37.00/ $37.00 | (closed) |
| USLEAV07 false AND < 100k IBC EOY 2007 | $37.00/ $37.00 | (closed) |
| USLEAV07 true AND >= 100k IBC EOY 2007 | $14.29/ $14.29 | (closed) |
| USLEAV07 true AND < 100k IBC EOY 2007 | $11.69/ $11.69 | (closed) |
What is the definition of civil war? Some would argue there is already a civil war going on since more than 1000 people have died and there are two factions fighting internally for control in multiple areas. Can the market maker clarify please?
Some people are describing current happenings as civil war but escalating sectarian violence is the term I’ve seen used more often, perhaps that is changing rapidly.
The point of this market (and the improved version) is to predict whether US withdrawal would make the violence worse, regardless of what it is called. If deaths increased drastically as specified by the +CW stocks there would be no debating that a civil war had occurred or is ongoing.
Please see http://home.inklingmarkets.com/market/show/2554 for the market that replaced this one, including an explanation of why.
What is the impact U.S. withdrawal from Iraq as specified by http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 on Iraqi civil war (specified by lower bound of at least 100k deaths published by http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ on Jan 1, 2008).
No Withdrawal + Civil War
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is NOT judged at 100 (meaning there are 100k or more US troops in Iraq in April 2007 or no information available) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is >= 100k.
No Withdrawal and NO civil war
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is NOT judged at 100 (meaning there are 100k or more US troops in Iraq in April 2007 or no information available) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is < 100k.
Withdrawal + Civil War
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is judged at 100 (meaning there are less than 100k US troops in Iraq in April 2007) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is >= 100k.
Withdrawal and NO civil war
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is judged at 100 (meaning there are less than 100k US troops in Iraq in April 2007) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is < 100k.