2006-11-25T16:03:40-08:00 What is the impact U.S. withdrawal from Iraq as specified by http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 on Iraqi civil war (specified by lower bound of deaths published by http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ increasing by 40,000 or more between May 1, 2007 and Jan 1, 2008. This is an improved version of http://home.inklingmarkets.com/market/show/2553 The improvement is that only post-April deaths are counted, disentangling the possibility that the number of deaths between now and April will impact both the probability of troop reduction and the probability of 100k total deaths at the end of 2008. I am interested in the impact withdrawal will have on Iraqi deaths, not vice versa or both at once! 2008-01-01T00:00:00-08:00 true 2554 Iraq withdrawal and civilian casualties (improved) 2008-04-28T09:38:28-07:00 1291 2006-11-25T16:11:47-08:00 No Withdrawal + No Civil War http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is NOT judged at 100 (meaning there are not less than 100k US troops in Iraq in April 2007 or no information is available) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is < 40,000 more than the number published midnight UTC May 1, 2007. 10000 13270 USLEAV07 false AND IBC < 40k May-Dec07 10000 9793 2008-01-02T13:27:34-08:00 3800 NW+NC 2006-11-25T16:08:04-08:00 Withdrawal + Civil War http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is judged at 100 (meaning there are less than 100k US troops in Iraq in April 2007) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is >= 40,000 more than the number published midnight UTC May 1, 2007. 0 13267 USLEAV07 true AND IBC >= 40k May-Dec07 0 1182 2007-07-06T11:46:57-07:00 1200 WD+CW 2006-11-25T16:09:03-08:00 Withdrawal + No Civil War http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is judged at 100 (meaning there are less than 100k US troops in Iraq in April 2007) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is < 40,000 more than the number published midnight UTC May 1, 2007. 0 13268 USLEAV07 true AND IBC < 40k May-Dec07 0 1182 2007-07-06T11:46:30-07:00 1200 WD+NC 2006-11-25T16:10:36-08:00 No Withdrawal + Civil War http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is NOT judged at 100 (meaning there are not less than 100k US troops in Iraq in April 2007 or no information is available) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is >= 40,000 more than the number published midnight UTC May 1, 2007. 0 13269 USLEAV07 false AND IBC >= 40k May-Dec07 0 207 2008-01-02T13:27:34-08:00 3800 NW+CW