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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| USLEAV07 false AND IBC < 40k May-Dec07 | $97.93/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| USLEAV07 true AND IBC >= 40k May-Dec07 | $11.82/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| USLEAV07 true AND IBC < 40k May-Dec07 | $11.82/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| USLEAV07 false AND IBC >= 40k May-Dec07 | $2.07/ $0.00 | (closed) |
Some people are describing current happenings as civil war but escalating sectarian violence is the term I’ve seen used more often, perhaps that is changing rapidly.
The point of this market is to predict whether US withdrawal would make the violence worse, regardless of what it is called. If deaths increased drastically as specified by the +CW stocks there would be no debating that a civil war had occurred or is ongoing.
USLEAV07 is now priced a 4. Free money selling the stocks that need USLEAV07 to be true or buying their opposites!
USLEAV07 was false, so cashed out (at 0) two stocks that depended on it being true.
Two remaining stocks depend on whether lower bound IBC increases by 40k from its May 1 number. I did not record May 1 number, but Internet Archive has copies of IBC front page from http://web.archive.org/web/20070408025356/http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ ((April 8) and http://web.archive.org/web/20070509204028/http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ (May 9), lower bounds of 60,835 and 63,067 respectively.
Given 31 days between the numbers I will take the May 1 number to be
60835+(63067-60835)*(22.0/31) = 62419
So the lower bound number published on Jan 1, 2008 has to be 102,419 or greater for IBC >= 40k May-Dec07 to be true.
What is the impact U.S. withdrawal from Iraq as specified by
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 on Iraqi civil war (specified by lower bound of deaths published by http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ increasing by 40,000 or more between May 1, 2007 and Jan 1, 2008.
This is an improved version of http://home.inklingmarkets.com/market/show/2553
The improvement is that only post-April deaths are counted, disentangling the possibility that the number of deaths between now and April will impact both the probability of troop reduction and the probability of 100k total deaths at the end of 2008. I am interested in the impact withdrawal will have on Iraqi deaths, not vice versa or both at once!
No Withdrawal + No Civil War
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is NOT judged at 100 (meaning there are not less than 100k US troops in Iraq in April 2007 or no information is available) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is < 40,000 more than the number published midnight UTC May 1, 2007.
Withdrawal + Civil War
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is judged at 100 (meaning there are less than 100k US troops in Iraq in April 2007) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is >= 40,000 more than the number published midnight UTC May 1, 2007.
Withdrawal + No Civil War
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is judged at 100 (meaning there are less than 100k US troops in Iraq in April 2007) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is < 40,000 more than the number published midnight UTC May 1, 2007.
No Withdrawal + Civil War
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=USLEAV07 is NOT judged at 100 (meaning there are not less than 100k US troops in Iraq in April 2007 or no information is available) AND the lower bound for Iraqi deaths published at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/ midnight UTC Jan 1, 2008 is >= 40,000 more than the number published midnight UTC May 1, 2007.