What is the probability each of these yCombinator start-ups will get bought out in the next 2 years? (Inkling Markets Public Marketplace)

What is the probability each of these yCombinator start-ups will get bought out in the next 2 years?

Ends: 06/25/08 @ 04:12 PM PDT

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TIP:

Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur.

PREDICTIONS	CURRENT VALUE	TODAY
Kiko	$93.12/ $100.00	(closed)
TextPayMe	$80.29/ $100.00	(closed)
Reddit	$85.87/ $100.00	(closed)
Snipshot	$24.98/ $0.00	(closed)
ClickFacts	$38.80/ $0.00	(closed)
Flagr	$17.66/ $0.00	(closed)
Inkling	$19.16/ $0.00	(closed)
WuFoo	$15.19/ $0.00	(closed)
YouOS	$23.94/ $0.00	(closed)
AudioBeta	$29.74/ $0.00	(closed)
Flipt	$31.61/ $0.00	(closed)

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discussion

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ecuzzillo trades: 9 • markets run: 0 • member since: 11/16/06

Need thinkature; I bet that’s the most likely of the above.

written: Nov 27 2006 @ 02:11 PM PST

Frod trades: 296 • markets run: 4 • member since: 02/05/08

Hasn’t TextPayMe already been bought by Amazon?

http://textpayme.com redirects to http://payments.amazon.com, which lists a product called “Amazon TextPayMe™”.

written: May 27 2008 @ 01:50 PM PDT | DISCLOSURE - This user is participating in this market.

wstritt trades: 12804 • markets run: 45 • member since: 04/10/07

I noted the same thing myself a couple of months ago. The textpayme corporate site at the time did not indicate a sale to Amazon but some sort of affiliation (as in Amazon would use their service). Old site doesn’t exist anymore but so hard to say what happened. No comment in Amazon’s press releases that they bought the company. You might send a note to Inkling though – they should know – or be able to find out – snce they are also a y-combinator company.

written: May 29 2008 @ 06:41 PM PDT | DISCLOSURE - This user is participating in this market.

wstritt trades: 12804 • markets run: 45 • member since: 04/10/07

Upon further review, at least the domain name textpayme.com is owned by Amazon. Who knows about the company but you would have thought it went the same way.

http://www.killerstartups.com/Owners/textpayme.com

This January 2008 JP Morgan report however, suggests that there is just an affiliation, not ownership.

https://mm.jpmorgan.com/stp/t/c.do?i=2082C-248&u=a_p*d_170762.pdf*h_-3ohpnmv

This one suggests Amazon owns it and has for a while:

http://seattle.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2006/10/16/story1.html

written: May 29 2008 @ 06:57 PM PDT | DISCLOSURE - This user is participating in this market.

market information

From the Y Combinator web site:

yCombinator is a new kind of venture firm specializing in funding very early stage startups. We help startups through what is for many the hardest step, from idea to company.

We invest mostly in software and Web services. And because we are ourselves technology people, we prefer groups with a lot of technical depth. We care more about how smart you are than how old you are, and more about the quality of your idea than whether you have a formal business plan.

stock information

Kiko

Online calendaring

Kiko

TextPayMe

Payments through your cell phone.

TextPayMe

Collaborative filtering.

Snipshot

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Snipshot

ClickFacts