Which of these market events will happen first?

Available to trade:

POSSIBLE ANSWERS	CHANCE	TODAY
10-year US treasury bond below 2.75%	88.7%/ 100.0%	(closed)
Near-month crude oil below $60	0.5%/ 0.0%	(closed)
DJIA will go above 12,000	0.7%/ 0.0%	(closed)
DJIA will go below 9,000	0.7%/ 0.0%	(closed)
Nikkei Average will go above 11,500	0.7%/ 0.0%	(closed)
Nikkei Average will go below 8,500	0.7%/ 0.0%	(closed)
FTSE 100 will go above 6,000	0.7%/ 0.0%	(closed)
FTSE 100 will go below 4,500	0.7%/ 0.0%	(closed)
10-year US treasury bond above 3.75%	0.5%/ 0.0%	(closed)
Near-month crude oil above $90	0.7%/ 0.0%	(closed)
Gold will go above $1,400	0.7%/ 0.0%	(closed)
Gold will go below $1,000	0.7%/ 0.0%	(closed)
Dollar/Yen will go above 105	0.5%/ 0.0%	(closed)
Dollar/Yen will go below 75	0.7%/ 0.0%	(closed)
Euro will go above $1.40	2.5%/ 0.0%	(closed)
Euro will go below $1.00	0.6%/ 0.0%	(closed)

Question closing

July 01, 2012 @ 01:02pm PDT

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bond djia dollar euro FTSE gold nikkei oil yen

discussion

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leto2 • Tue Jun 22 2010 at 06:56pm PDT

Awesome market… but so many choices!

wllp • Tue Aug 10 2010 at 01:48pm PDT

10-year US treasury bond went briefly below 2.75% just before 3pm.

MFWinAlford • Tue Aug 10 2010 at 02:18pm PDT

Thank you for the heads-up. I was so busy watching the stock market I didn’t notice. This question has been paid out accordingly.

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Background information

This question was popular when I first published it, about 3 months ago. So, I thought I’d give it another go, with updated ranges. As Yogi Berra is said to have opined, “the future ain’t what it used to be!”

It’s amazing how much some of these prices have shifted in only 3 months!

Here are the remarks that went with the original version:

My source of information will be the Wall Street Journal Market Data page. They give plenty of detail, historical ranges, charts, and so on; the whole process will be very transparent.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/page/marketsdata.html

I realize that not all of these ranges are exactly symmetric, and that some of these instruments are more volatile than others; yet, this is Inkling not real life! And, even in real life, historical statistics do not always help to predict the future!

I am leaving the market open for 2 years, but expect that it will close before then. If not, I will extend it.

I use the word “go” instead of “close” advisedly. Since we are dealing with instruments that are traded across many time zones, the concept of “close” is really not operational. In the event that one of these boundaries is crossed, I do not expect it to be controversial; again, the WSJ will be the arbiter.