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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| Canada election 2007 not happening | $86.39/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Canada election 2007 Q2 | $42.20/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Canada election 2007 Q3 | $49.27/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Canada election 2007 Q4 | $13.61/ $0.00 | (closed) |
There is tremendous activity from the pollsters.
There is jockeying on timing now happening.
With only 33 days between now (Nov 21) and Christmas Eve and a typical election period of approx 6 or 7 weeks, it is unlikely that the writ will be dropped between now and year’s end as this would in all liklihood need to occur prior to Christmas and result in a campaign over the holidays. Martin tried this and was punished for it and, given the mood of the electorate, the party that forces an election between now and year’s end would start from a serious disadvantage give the widespread disgruntlement it would create.
The current date does not preclude the writ [the call for an election] being served on the Governor-General in 2007 with an election sometime in 2008.
No it doesn’t, but dropping the writ between now and Dec 24th would result in a campaign over the holidays and that is particularly unlikely – but even less likely (and virtually impossible) is the writ being dropped between Dec 26 and Dec 31. I suppose there is a remote possibilty but the Libs are in no shape to fight an election and neither the Libs or the Tories will want to fight one with the “you called an unneccesary election over Christmas” albatros around their necks.
The current government is a minority. This means that it has less than 50% of the seats in parliament. If the opposing parties choose they can defeat the government and compel an election. The government can also call an election at any point in time it chooses. Recent events to consider are the election of a new leader for the Liberal party, the switching of allegiance of a member (changes the dynamics but it still leaves a minority), and the activity of the parliament.
This pays out $100 for the quarter of 2007 in which the call to have an election is made [usually done by the Prime Minister visiting the Governor-General]. The actual election may occur in another quarter.
More information may be garnered from Sirius 137, cbc.ca, canada.com, thestar.com, ctv.com, and theglobeandmail.com
Will an election call in Canada be made not in 2007?
Will an election call in Canada be made up to and including 30 June 2007?
Will an election call in Canada be made up to and including 30 September 2007?
Will an election call in Canada be made up to and including 31 December 2007?