Where will there be the biggest increase in the proportion of seats held by women in national parliament, between 2004 and 2007? (Inkling Markets Public Marketplace)

Where will there be the biggest increase in the proportion of seats held by women in national parliament, between 2004 and 2007?

Ends: 09/30/07 @ 11:59 PM PDT

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TIP:

Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur.

PREDICTIONS	CURRENT VALUE	TODAY
South Asia	$21.50	(closed)
Sub-Saharan Africa	$19.85	(closed)
Latin America and the Caribbean	$18.70	(closed)
Eastern Europe and Central Asia	$16.06	(closed)
East Asia & the Pacific	$12.53	(closed)
Middle East and North Africa	$11.34	(closed)

What this market is all about

This market is an experiment. Will people be interested in participating in this type of prediction market? Will the predictions be accurate? How quickly during the operation of the market will accurate predictions become evident? The argument for this type of use of prediction markets can be found in Rick Davies’s M&E blog You can post your comments there, or on this inklings.com website, under the “discussion” section above

What are the MDGs? The eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were agreed at the United Nations Millennium Summit in September 2000 and nearly 190 countries have subsequently signed up to them. The Goals range from halving global poverty and hunger to protecting the environment, improving health and sanitation and tackling illiteracy and discrimination against women. Alongside the Goals, a series of 18 targets were also drawn up to give the international community a number of tangible improvements to aim for within a fixed period of time, and also make it easier for them to measure their progress to date.

You can find a complete listing of the goals, targets, and indicators for MDGs here

The third MDG is to “Promote gender equality and empower women” One of the three indicators of the achievement of that goal is the “proportion of seats held by women in national parliament” This goal and indicator has been chosen for use in this experimental use of prediction markets, because it is relatively easy to measure and the data is readily available.

The authoritative source about regions’performance on this indicator will be the World Bank website at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED

Please note: The region choices provided in this market do not include Western Europe, North America, Japan or Australia and New Zealand.

Useful Links

The Wikipedia entry on MDGs

The UN Millenium Development Goals annual report

UN Millenium Development Goal Indicators

The World Bank: Millenium Development Goals at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/GMIS/gdmis.do?siteId=2&menuId=LNAV01HOME1

Gender Equality & the MDGs

You can submit other websites for inclusion here via rick@mande.co.uk (you will need to respond to an automated spamarrest.com check)

stock information

South Asia

South Asia
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Bhutan
India
Maldives
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri Lanka