| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| South Asia | $21.50 | (closed) |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | $19.85 | (closed) |
| Latin America and the Caribbean | $18.70 | (closed) |
| Eastern Europe and Central Asia | $16.06 | (closed) |
| East Asia & the Pacific | $12.53 | (closed) |
| Middle East and North Africa | $11.34 | (closed) |
What data will you be using to resolve this market?
This market will run up to September 30th 2007, but the predictions must relate to proportions of women in parliament by December 31st 2007. If the market is let to run any later in the year the winning participants will be those with good historical research skills rather than good capacity to predict. I will seek advice from Word Bank on how soon the results could be declared.
mmmmm fascinating. How about western europe? North America? This beggars belief! Trading on the futures of the south, if only as child’s play, but nevertheless………
This market is an experiment. Will people be interested in participating in this type of prediction market? Will the predictions be accurate? How quickly during the operation of the market will accurate predictions become evident? The argument for this type of use of prediction markets can be found in Rick Davies’s M&E blog You can post your comments there, or on this inklings.com website, under the “discussion” section above
What are the MDGs? The eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were agreed at the United Nations Millennium Summit in September 2000 and nearly 190 countries have subsequently signed up to them. The Goals range from halving global poverty and hunger to protecting the environment, improving health and sanitation and tackling illiteracy and discrimination against women. Alongside the Goals, a series of 18 targets were also drawn up to give the international community a number of tangible improvements to aim for within a fixed period of time, and also make it easier for them to measure their progress to date.
You can find a complete listing of the goals, targets, and indicators for MDGs here
The third MDG is to “Promote gender equality and empower women” One of the three indicators of the achievement of that goal is the “proportion of seats held by women in national parliament” This goal and indicator has been chosen for use in this experimental use of prediction markets, because it is relatively easy to measure and the data is readily available.
The authoritative source about regions’performance on this indicator will be the World Bank website at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED
This market will run up to September 30th 2007, but the predictions must relate to proportions of women in parliament by December 31st 2007. If the market is let to run any later in the year the winning participants will be those with good historical research skills rather than good capacity to predict. I will seek advice from Word Bank on how soon the results could be declared.
Please note: The region choices provided in this market do not include Western Europe, North America, Japan or Australia and New Zealand.
The UN Millenium Development Goals annual report
UN Millenium Development Goal Indicators
The World Bank: Millenium Development Goals at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/GMIS/gdmis.do?siteId=2&menuId=LNAV01HOME1
You can submit other websites for inclusion here via rick@mande.co.uk (you will need to respond to an automated spamarrest.com check)
South Asia
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Bhutan
India
Maldives
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED
Sub-Saharan Africa
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Central African Republic
Chad
Comoros
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Congo, Rep.
Côte d’Ivoire
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia, The
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mayotte
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
São Tomé and Principe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Somalia
South Africa
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED
Latin America and the Caribbean
Argentina
Barbados
Belize
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Cuba
Dominica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Grenada
Guatemala
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
St. Kitts and Nevis
St. Lucia
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Suriname
Trinidad and Tobago
Uruguay
Venezuela, RB
See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Albania
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Estonia
Georgia
Hungary
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyz Republic
Latvia
Lithuania
Macedonia, FYR
Moldova
Poland
Romania
Russian Federation
Serbia and Montenegro
Slovak Republic
Tajikistan
Turkey
Turkmenistan
Ukraine
Uzbekistan
See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED
East Asia and the Pacific
American Samoa
Cambodia
China
Fiji
Indonesia
Kiribati
Korea, Dem. Rep.
Lao PDR
Malaysia
Marshall Islands
Micronesia, Fed. Sts.
Mongolia
Myanmar
Northern Mariana Islands
Palau
Papua New Guinea
Philippines
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Thailand
Timor-Leste
Tonga
Vanuatu
Vietnam
See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED
Middle East and North Africa
Algeria
Djibouti
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Iraq
Jordan
Lebanon
Libya
Morocco
Oman
Syrian Arab Republic
Tunisia
West Bank and Gaza
Yemen, Rep.
See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED