2007-01-19T01:47:06-08:00 h2. What this market is all about This market is an experiment. Will people be interested in participating in this type of prediction market? Will the predictions be accurate? How quickly during the operation of the market will accurate predictions become evident? The argument for this type of use of prediction markets can be found in Rick Davies’s M&E "blog":http://mandenews.blogspot.com/ You can post your comments there, or on this inklings.com website, under the "discussion" section above <B>What are the MDGs?</B> The eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were agreed at the United Nations Millennium Summit in September 2000 and nearly 190 countries have subsequently signed up to them. The Goals range from halving global poverty and hunger to protecting the environment, improving health and sanitation and tackling illiteracy and discrimination against women. Alongside the Goals, a series of 18 targets were also drawn up to give the international community a number of tangible improvements to aim for within a fixed period of time, and also make it easier for them to measure their progress to date. You can find a complete listing of the goals, targets, and indicators for MDGs "here":http://devdata.worldbank.org/gmis/mdg/list_of_goals.htm The third MDG is to “Promote gender equality and empower women” One of the three indicators of the achievement of that goal is the “proportion of seats held by women in national parliament” This goal and indicator has been chosen for use in this experimental use of prediction markets, because it is relatively easy to measure and the data is readily available. The authoritative source about regions’performance on this indicator will be the World Bank website at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED This market will run up to September 30th 2007, but the predictions must relate to proportions of women in parliament by December 31st 2007. If the market is let to run any later in the year the winning participants will be those with good historical research skills rather than good capacity to predict. I will seek advice from Word Bank on how soon the results could be declared. Please note: The region choices provided in this market do not include Western Europe, North America, Japan or Australia and New Zealand. h2. Useful Links "The Wikipedia entry on MDGs":http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Development_Goals The UN Millenium Development Goals "annual report":http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/ "UN Millenium Development Goal Indicators":http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/Default.aspx The World Bank: Millenium Development Goals at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/GMIS/gdmis.do?siteId=2&menuId=LNAV01HOME1 "Gender Equality & the MDGs":http://www.mdgender.net/ You can submit other websites for inclusion here via rick@mande.co.uk (you will need to respond to an automated spamarrest.com check) 2007-09-30T23:59:00-07:00 true 3166 Where will there be the biggest increase in the proportion of seats held by women in national parliament, between 2004 and 2007? 2008-04-28T09:38:30-07:00 8238 2007-01-19T01:59:41-08:00 <B>South Asia</B> Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED 2150 14718 South Asia 2150 2150 1666 SA 2007-01-19T02:00:39-08:00 <B>Sub-Saharan Africa</B> Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep. Côte d'Ivoire Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gabon Gambia, The Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Kenya Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mayotte Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda São Tomé and Principe Senegal Seychelles Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Togo Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED 1985 14719 Sub-Saharan Africa 1985 1985 1666 SSA 2007-01-19T01:57:01-08:00 <B>Latin America and the Caribbean</B> Argentina Barbados Belize Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Grenada Guatemala Guyana Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines Suriname Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay Venezuela, RB See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED 1870 14716 Latin America and the Caribbean 1870 1870 1666 LA&C 2007-01-19T01:55:46-08:00 <B>Eastern Europe and Central Asia</B> Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Estonia Georgia Hungary Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Latvia Lithuania Macedonia, FYR Moldova Poland Romania Russian Federation Serbia and Montenegro Slovak Republic Tajikistan Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED 1606 14715 Eastern Europe and Central Asia 1606 1606 1666 E&CA 2007-01-19T01:54:29-08:00 <B>East Asia and the Pacific</B> American Samoa Cambodia China Fiji Indonesia Kiribati Korea, Dem. Rep. Lao PDR Malaysia Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. Sts. Mongolia Myanmar Northern Mariana Islands Palau Papua New Guinea Philippines Samoa Solomon Islands Thailand Timor-Leste Tonga Vanuatu Vietnam See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED 1253 14714 East Asia & the Pacific 1253 1253 1666 EA&P 2007-01-19T01:58:43-08:00 <B>Middle East and North Africa</B> Algeria Djibouti Egypt, Arab Rep. Iran, Islamic Rep. Iraq Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco Oman Syrian Arab Republic Tunisia West Bank and Gaza Yemen, Rep. See data on each of these countries and the whole region at http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=1336&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED 1134 14717 Middle East and North Africa 1134 1134 1666 ME&NA