It may be more useful if it closed later but is based upon when he actually dies, not based upon announcement date – it could be announced later.

The length of the market was pretty much my own whim. I chose it by picking a deadline which seemed by my own speculations to be uncertain enough to have some fun with it; If no announcement is forthcoming before April, I’m sure we’ll see more markets.

Given the degree of secrecy around Castro’s condition, it may be near impossible to determine the actual date of his death. I considered waiting for an official press release and then using the date they cited, but concluded that it’s as much fun to guess the timing of the propaganda machine as it is to guess the timing of a medical event.