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Which of the listed 9 Democratic Senators, will NOT return to the Senate as a member, following the 2012 general elections?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS PREDICTED CHANCE TODAY
PREDICTED
77.35%
ACTUAL
100.00%
PREDICTED
6.57%
ACTUAL
0.00%
PREDICTED
92.53%
ACTUAL
100.00%
PREDICTED
8.45%
ACTUAL
0.00%
PREDICTED
1.22%
ACTUAL
0.00%
PREDICTED
4.04%
ACTUAL
0.00%
PREDICTED
8.95%
ACTUAL
0.00%
PREDICTED
80.29%
ACTUAL
0.00%
PREDICTED
5.96%
ACTUAL
0.00%

Question ends

November 01, 2012 @ 06:59pm PDT
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Predictions Made

278 (Most: SneakyPete)
Discussion

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SneakyPete   •   Thu Jan 12 2012 at 03:09pm PST
Florida Senate Race Razor Tight.

A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida shows Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) locked in a very tight race with likely challenger Connie Mack®, 41% to 40%. http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/01/11/florida_senate_race_razor_tight.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PoliticalWire+%28Political+Wire%29
SneakyPete   •   Tue Mar 22 2011 at 08:54am PDT
Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill just disclosed that she failed to pay $287,000 in property taxes related to her co-ownership of a private aircraft. This scandal comes quickly on the heels of recent revelations that McCaskill improperly billed taxpayers for use of the same private aircraft, for which McCaskill reimbursed the Treasury $88,000. http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/breaking-sen-claire-mccaskil-d-mo-admits-failing-pay-287000-property-taxes_554904.html
SneakyPete   •   Mon Mar 21 2011 at 09:38am PDT
Tester in Very Close Re-Election Race
A new Billings Gazette State Poll in Montana finds Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) and challenger Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-MT) in a virtual dead heat for U.S. Senate, 46% to 45% with 9% undecided.
http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_98e0af0e-394e-55e2-aca7-f45be45f0ad3.html

m_i_k_e   •   Tue Feb 22 2011 at 05:04pm PST
kind of doubting the responsiveness of this market that this was not immediately bid down to something much more realistic.
SneakyPete   •   Mon Mar 21 2011 at 09:43am PDT
In answer to your question, While this market is out a good length of time, I did it to see what happens with additional Senators possible dropping out, either not runnig, getting defeated, or running for a different office. We have seen 10+ Senators, from both sides of the isle, already leaving the 2012 Senatorial races. It is going to be very interesting year ahead fo political junkies.
FCIC   •   Tue Feb 22 2011 at 03:03pm PST
harry reid is not up for reelection, eh?
sircu5   •   Tue Feb 22 2011 at 03:06pm PST
This was my thought too. Sadly, I couldn’t short him more. I’d give him a default 10-15%, maybe 20% chance of just retiring for whatever reason.
SneakyPete   •   Tue Feb 22 2011 at 04:35pm PST
Both FCIC & you are correct. Senator Reid is not up for re-election as he won re-election last year. There is a “Remote???” possibility that he could retire if the odds are that the Senate would switch from Democrat to Republican control in 2012. Will he want to remain as a Senator after holding the Majority Leader for so long. Just added him as a curiosity choice.
MFWinAlford   •   Wed Jul 06 2011 at 11:17am PDT
That would be “Democratic to Republican control” — unless you want to be consistently wrong, then you could say “Democrat to Republic control” — ;)
sircu5   •   Wed Feb 23 2011 at 02:36am PST
It might have been good to set his initial price differently. An interesting strategy might have been to put all the senators up for election at a default 10% and all the others at 1%. It’s quite expensive to short people down from 50%, but comparitively cheap to get them up from 10% and even cheaper from 1%. This might have produced a more responsive market.
SneakyPete   •   Tue Mar 22 2011 at 08:55am PDT
Thanks for your good comments. Will consider in the future.

Reasons for Prediction

"Mo is trending Red, and MacCaskill has potential ethics issues flying about"
Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO).
April 05, 2011 @ 01:26pm PDT

"A Dem can't out teabag a Republican in Nebraska"
Sen. Ben Nelson (NE).
March 10, 2011 @ 03:06am PST

"She will remain BUT shoud not."
Sen. Dianne Feinstein
September 30, 2012 @ 11:50am PDT

historical trend

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