Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

Which of the listed 9 Democratic Senators, will NOT return to the Senate as a member, following the 2012 general elections?

» more info

To make predictions, please Login or Sign up.

POSSIBLE ANSWERS	PREDICTED CHANCE	TODAY
Sen. Ben Nelson (NE). (closed)	PREDICTED 77.35%	ACTUAL 100.00%
Sen. Bill Nelson (FL). (closed)	PREDICTED 6.57%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Sen. Bob Kerrey (NE) (closed)	PREDICTED 92.53%	ACTUAL 100.00%
Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO). (closed)	PREDICTED 8.45%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (closed)	PREDICTED 1.22%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Sen. Harry Reid (NV). (closed)	PREDICTED 4.04%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Sen. Joe Manchin (WV). (closed)	PREDICTED 8.95%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Sen. Jon Tester (MT). (closed)	PREDICTED 80.29%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Sen. Sherrod Brown (OH). (closed)	PREDICTED 5.96%	ACTUAL 0.00%

Question ends

November 01, 2012 @ 06:59pm PDT

created by

SneakyPete (all their questions)

Predictions Made

278 (Most: SneakyPete)

Discussion

You must be logged in to submit a comment. Login or Sign up.

Sort by: Down

Date

SneakyPete • Thu Jan 12 2012 at 03:09pm PST

Florida Senate Race Razor Tight.

A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida shows Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) locked in a very tight race with likely challenger Connie Mack®, 41% to 40%. http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/01/11/florida_senate_race_razor_tight.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PoliticalWire+%28Political+Wire%29

SneakyPete • Tue Mar 22 2011 at 08:54am PDT

Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill just disclosed that she failed to pay $287,000 in property taxes related to her co-ownership of a private aircraft. This scandal comes quickly on the heels of recent revelations that McCaskill improperly billed taxpayers for use of the same private aircraft, for which McCaskill reimbursed the Treasury $88,000. http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/breaking-sen-claire-mccaskil-d-mo-admits-failing-pay-287000-property-taxes_554904.html

SneakyPete • Mon Mar 21 2011 at 09:38am PDT

Tester in Very Close Re-Election Race
A new Billings Gazette State Poll in Montana finds Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) and challenger Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-MT) in a virtual dead heat for U.S. Senate, 46% to 45% with 9% undecided.
http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_98e0af0e-394e-55e2-aca7-f45be45f0ad3.html

m_i_k_e • Tue Feb 22 2011 at 05:04pm PST

kind of doubting the responsiveness of this market that this was not immediately bid down to something much more realistic.

SneakyPete • Mon Mar 21 2011 at 09:43am PDT

In answer to your question, While this market is out a good length of time, I did it to see what happens with additional Senators possible dropping out, either not runnig, getting defeated, or running for a different office. We have seen 10+ Senators, from both sides of the isle, already leaving the 2012 Senatorial races. It is going to be very interesting year ahead fo political junkies.

FCIC • Tue Feb 22 2011 at 03:03pm PST

harry reid is not up for reelection, eh?

sircu5 • Tue Feb 22 2011 at 03:06pm PST

This was my thought too. Sadly, I couldn’t short him more. I’d give him a default 10-15%, maybe 20% chance of just retiring for whatever reason.

SneakyPete • Tue Feb 22 2011 at 04:35pm PST

Both FCIC & you are correct. Senator Reid is not up for re-election as he won re-election last year. There is a “Remote???” possibility that he could retire if the odds are that the Senate would switch from Democrat to Republican control in 2012. Will he want to remain as a Senator after holding the Majority Leader for so long. Just added him as a curiosity choice.

MFWinAlford • Wed Jul 06 2011 at 11:17am PDT

That would be “Democratic to Republican control” — unless you want to be consistently wrong, then you could say “Democrat to Republic control” — ;)

sircu5 • Wed Feb 23 2011 at 02:36am PST

It might have been good to set his initial price differently. An interesting strategy might have been to put all the senators up for election at a default 10% and all the others at 1%. It’s quite expensive to short people down from 50%, but comparitively cheap to get them up from 10% and even cheaper from 1%. This might have produced a more responsive market.

SneakyPete • Tue Mar 22 2011 at 08:55am PDT

Thanks for your good comments. Will consider in the future.

Reasons for Prediction

"Mo is trending Red, and MacCaskill has potential ethics issues flying about"
Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO).
April 05, 2011 @ 01:26pm PDT

"A Dem can't out teabag a Republican in Nebraska"
Sen. Ben Nelson (NE).
March 10, 2011 @ 03:06am PST

"She will remain BUT shoud not."
Sen. Dianne Feinstein
September 30, 2012 @ 11:50am PDT

price chart

- Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph

You need to upgrade your Flash Player to view the Inkling graphs.

Background information

Click to view original

The Seven Hardest States for Senate Democrats in 2012?

One of the reasons Senate Democrats are so bashful about changing the rules to weaken the power of the minority is that most folks expect that’s exactly where Democrats will be after next year.

Republicans now have 47 seats in the Senate, meaning they need to gain only four seats to take control. Chance and a successful Democratic cycle in 2006 means that 23 seats controlled by Democrats will be up in 2012, compared to just 10 for Republicans.

The number that matters, though, is how many races will be competitive. And that’s where the Democrats have a real problem.

Republicans are only likely to be playing defense on two of the 10 seats. Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., will be in the fight of his life with his state’s Democratic voters heading to the polls for a presidential election. In Nevada, scandal-soaked Sen. John Ensign will have to fight to hold on to his swing-state seat.

We can’t yet know what primary upsets may be in store for Republicans. The Tea Party Express has already started calling out incumbents, starting with Maine’s Olympia Snowe. The group’s candidates lost winnable seats for Republicans in Delaware and Nevada in 2010, so the list of potential Republican defeats could certainly grow.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/02/11/hardest-states-senate-democrats/#

Originators Note: As of 20 Feruary 2011 four Democratic Senators including Senators Kent Conrad, Joe Lieberman, Sen. Jeff Bingaman and Sen. Jim Webb have already dropped out for the 2011 general elections.

Note: A YES answer wold be Senators wno do NOT elect to return to the Senate because of retirement, running for a different office, OR by losing the 2012 primaries or general election.