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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| Other | $48.05/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Constitution Party | $1.94/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Libertarian Party | $47.28/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Green Party | $2.72/ $0.00 | (closed) |
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I’d just like to point out that edited OTHER’s stock info to clarify that an independent candidate would fall under the ‘other’ category, but not the entire independent vote.
Very timely edit:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/05/13/ftn/main2795705.shtml
But the real question becomes which major political party would be hurt most? I think it will take away Republican votes that might otherwise cross over to the Democratic Party in 2008. The Democrats cannot be happy about this.
http://washingtontimes.com/national/20070515-123142-3314r.htm
Looking back at this market, I am quite pleased at how relevant it has become:
Green Party: Incumbent third place finisher. Environmental issues have been publicly emphasized this past year.
Libertarian: Will Ron Paul make a run (or will his popularity help bring libertarian ideas to the forefront)?
Other: There has been a smattering of talks on potential independent runs.
Constitution: Can Republicans dissatisfied with John McCain boost the Constitution turnout?
FREE INKLE IDEA FOR WEEK OF 9/29
It is possible to sell stock in the Libertarian Party for $90.94 in What third party will get the most votes in 2008? and buy at $72.81 in What third party will garner the largest percentage of the popular vote in 2008? Why such an attractive spread between the two markets?
The answer is in the details. The first market maker states explicitly that “Other” does not include independents. In the second market, independents are counted. If a single independent candidate defeats all of the fringe parties, stock in “Other” will pay out.
Will Ralph Nader (Independent) earn more votes than Bob Barr (Libertarian)? Will a write-in campaign for Hillary Clinton beat all of the registered third party options? It is impossible to say. If you buy this trade and either of the above occurs, you will lose money. Sometimes the best way to earn inkles is to wait for a better trade.
Why hasn’t this market paid out yet? CNN has Nader (other) as the winner.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/allcandidates/
Select the party that you believe will recieve the highest percentage of the popular vote (other than the Democrats or Republicans) in the 2008 US Presidential Election. Payouts will be at 100.00 per winning share.
Choose this stock if you believe a third party other than the Green Party, Libertarian Party, or Constitution Party will receive the largest percentage of the popular vote (other than Democrats and Republicans) in the 2008 US Presidential Elections. This could include a single independent candidate, but not the total independent vote.
Choose this stock if you believe the Constitution Party will receive the largest percentage of the popular vote (other than Democrats and Republicans) in the 2008 US Presidential Elections.
Choose this stock if you believe the Libertarian Party will receive the largest percentage of the popular vote (other than Democrats and Republicans) in the 2008 US Presidential Elections.
Choose this stock if you believe the Green Party will receive the largest percentage of the popular vote (other than Democrats and Republicans) in the 2008 US Presidential Elections.