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When will Bashar al-Assad cease being president of Syria?


Question ends

January 01, 2014 @ 08:27am PST

Predictions Made

5086 (Most: job)

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SneakyPete   •   Sat May 25 2013 at 10:41am PDT
Elite Iranian unit`s commander says his forces are in Syria.

The commander of Iran�s Revolutionary Guard Corps said Sunday that members of its elite Quds Force are inside Syria but are not involved directly in military work, the first time a senior official has publicly admitted the involvement of Iranian military personnel in the Syrian conflict.

The Iranian�s comments are one of the clearest signs yet that the conflict in Syria has evolved into a broader regional showdown with Iran and Lebanon�s Hezbollah supporting the government of President Bashar al-
Assad and Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar supporting the rebels. Both sides have been accused of funneling arms into the country.

ecotax   •   Mon May 20 2013 at 04:09am PDT
I’m much less convinced that we will see Assad ousted this year than I was a month a go.
Instead of a ‘simple’ civil war fought against a dictator hated by about 80% of the population, this seems to be turning into a complicated proxy war between the Sunni an Shia factions of Islam on the one hand, and the old east/west conflict on the other hand. With the west being reluctant to revive the Cold War and to again follow the ‘an enemy of my enemy is my friend’ type of reasoning, the support Assad gets from both Iran and Russia could very well be enough to keep him in power for the time being.
job   •   Mon May 20 2013 at 05:16am PDT
I agree with you, that it likely it will take more than one year to take him out of the office. I was thinking that already in 2011 and was able to buy 2,500 shares for very low prices.So I was selling some shares to bring down my investment to zero.
SneakyPete   •   Thu Dec 13 2012 at 12:07pm PST
New desperate tactics being used by the Syrian army to attack rebel forces – including the use of SCUD missiles and possibly napalm – and an acknowledgment today by Russia that the Syrian rebels could win the civil war are new indications that the end is near for the Assad regime
job   •   Thu Dec 13 2012 at 12:31pm PST
It’s hard to say how long Assad will stay. If he loses the fight, he is likely to have the same destiny as the Libyan Colonel. So he will fight to the bitter end.
SneakyPete   •   Thu Dec 13 2012 at 12:41pm PST
Ifully agree. He will fight to the end and most likely meet the same destiny as the Libyan Colonel.
job   •   Sun Dec 09 2012 at 12:28am PST
“job • Mon Nov 14 2011 at 12:17pm CET
This dictatorship can only be ended by armed intervention from outside the country. I don’t see that happen soon, and maybe it won’t happen and Assad will stay as long as his father did.
So I think that “2014 or later” is with 20% a bargen.”

One year later 10% is still a bargen! I think I can repeat this statement in december 2013!

SneakyPete   •   Sat Dec 08 2012 at 07:02pm PST
Syrian rebels get new leadership in bid to unite, increase coordination.

Rebel commanders from across Syria have joined forces under a united command they hope will increase coordination between diverse fighting groups and streamline the pathway for arms essential to their struggle against President Bashar Assad.

While many of the brigades involved in the fighting are decidedly Islamist in outlook and some have boasted about executing captured soldiers, two of the most extreme groups fighting in Syria were not invited to the rebel meeting in Turkey or included in the new council — a move that could encourage Western support.

Disorganization has bedeviled Syria’s rebel movement since its birth late last year, when some protesters gave up on peaceful means to bring down Assad’s regime and took up arms, forming the base of what became the Free Syrian Army.

Read more:

Are Bashar al-Assad days, as being president, numbered.

job   •   Sat Nov 10 2012 at 02:11pm PST
I fear, that most likely 2014 or later will be the right answer. Unless we get a “coup d’etat” or Assad dies, Assed will still be president on Jan 1, 2014. So after building up a large short position of 2012 shares, I will start collecting 2014 or later shares, but only for reasonable prices.
ecotax   •   Mon Nov 12 2012 at 07:46am PST
Well, if we can agree on a price around 25-30%, I’m in. He’s doing better, militarily speaking, than I would have thought half a year ago, but I don’t think the current situation stable enough to last another year.
He doesn’t seem to be able to crush the opposition, and the other way around looks only a matter of time.
This could be more than a year, but I seriously doubt it.
job   •   Mon Nov 12 2012 at 08:40am PST
If I have to hold my shares over a year than 30% is too much in this stage. So far I bought my first 520 shares for an average of 20%. So between 20 and 25% is fine for me.
ecotax   •   Sun Nov 25 2012 at 10:31am PST
Fair enough… Given the latest developments, even the current price of 20% looks pretty optimistic to me.
markettalk   •   Tue Jul 24 2012 at 07:30am PDT
ecotax   •   Fri Jul 20 2012 at 02:51am PDT
By now, this question is basically simplified to ‘will Bashar al-Assad still be president on january 1, 2013?’
With Russia and China blocking outside intervention, the terrorist/freedom fighters will probably have to fight this civil war mostly by themselves. Which, despite being outgunned, they seem to be doing just fine. With the assassination of some key government figures and the fact that they managed to bring the fight to the capital already, the regime is now in the defensive in a conflict they must by now realize they cannot win anymore. With the vast military they still control they can still last for weeks, probably months, but certainly not years. It remains to be seen if, like Kadaffi, he’s stubborn enough to stay until the end game – in this case, I doubt it.
SneakyPete   •   Fri Jul 20 2012 at 05:08pm PDT
I agree with you that Bashar al-Assad will most likely not remain as president of Syria on January 1, 2013. He will most probably hit the road and flee to places unknown with the Syrian treasury with him.
ecotax   •   Sat Nov 10 2012 at 06:38am PST
This week he defiantly announced he’s not going anywhere but will stay in Syria till the end.
Thus far it’s only words, but we may both be proven wrong in our initial expectation here.
And at this moment it looks like he’ll make it, at significant cost, at least till january 2013.
SneakyPete   •   Sat Nov 10 2012 at 08:10am PST
Unfortunately…. You are correct.
Best Record   •   Tue Jul 03 2012 at 03:59am PDT
SneakyPete   •   Tue May 29 2012 at 11:21am PDT
It is interesting to see that the International community, includeing Russa and China, are slowly turning their support away from Bashar al-Assad remaining as the president of Syria. His days are numbered in my opinion. There are rumors that there is a push to have him leave as President, but leave his governmnent, in place.
job   •   Tue May 29 2012 at 12:18pm PDT
Like Colonel Gaddafi, Assad is not the kind of dictator who leaves office voluntarily. And without an well organized armed help from other countries he will stay in charge for the next 10 years or so. And with an armed invasion from outside it will take probably more than a year to get rid of this guy!
SneakyPete   •   Tue May 29 2012 at 02:28pm PDT
I fully agree that Assad, like Colonel Gaddafi, is not the kind of dictator who leaves office voluntarily. However, what with all the killing of innocent civilians including children, a military which is running rampant across the country doing whatever they wish, and an increasing lack of support from his former supporters excluding Iran, his days in power have to be short in nature. At least I hope so. I really do not know if we will see another NATO effort take place to take him down from power or if the current insurgency taking place, with outside support, will do it.
job   •   Tue May 29 2012 at 02:33pm PDT
I hope you are right………..
I fear I’am right………
SneakyPete   •   Tue May 29 2012 at 02:45pm PDT
Will shall see….. or as the old saying goes “Time Will Tell”.
job   •   Sat Mar 31 2012 at 02:50pm PDT
March can be closed
job   •   Thu Mar 01 2012 at 07:55am PST
febr 2012 can be closed
job   •   Sat Dec 31 2011 at 01:55am PST
Assad is not the kind of dictator that will leave office voluntary. It took about 9 months to get rid of the Libyan Colonel with externel help. Without help on a large scale from outside the country, I think that the growing civil war wil last at least one year.
MFWinAlford   •   Sun Feb 12 2012 at 02:16pm PST
Agreed, but the question is whether he will last the year. "The Arab League will ask the United Nations to form a joint peacekeeping force and appoint a special Arab envoy to try to halt the violence in Syria, members have agreed. … Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov … expressed support for the league’s efforts and an expanded “observer” mission. The United Nations has historically deployed armed peacekeepers only with the host country’s consent."

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Dec 21 2011 at 09:45am PST

Tensions rise in Syria. Calls for international action. Attempts by opposition to control territory. This seems to be escalating.

ecotax   •   Wed Dec 28 2011 at 03:08pm PST
Combined with plenty of defections, this looks like the beginning of a full-scale civil war to me. The time for a swift and decisive victory for al-Assad seems to have come and gone, so the best we can hope for now is a relatively quick victory for the rebels, but I’m afraid anything before ‘April-December 2012’ is a bit optimistic.
Best4Lowell   •   Thu Dec 29 2011 at 11:47am PST
job   •   Wed Nov 16 2011 at 02:18am PST
Nov 1-15 can be closed!
MFWinAlford   •   Sun Nov 13 2011 at 04:15pm PST

I still can’t believe this market is priced to expect Assad to survive into 2013 or later at over 60%!

ecotax   •   Tue Nov 13 2012 at 08:46am PST
I didn’t believe this either, a year ago…
job   •   Mon Nov 14 2011 at 03:17am PST
This dictatorship can only be ended by armed intervention from outside the country. I don’t see that happen soon, and maybe it won’t happen and Assad will stay as long as his father did.
So I think that “2014 or later” is with 20% a bargen.
MFWinAlford   •   Mon Nov 14 2011 at 08:36pm PST
Jordan’s king urges Assad to step down

I’m sorry, but your argument that the only route to change is military intervention just doesn’t cut it for me!

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Nov 15 2011 at 02:44am PST
Further to this, arguing against outside military intervention, but claiming that Syria is on the brink of civil war, with the only solution a “transition of power”…

job   •   Tue Nov 15 2011 at 03:03am PST
Revolt by the people can last for years (unfortunately)and can only succeed if the army will choose the side of the people (see Egypt) or with help from outside (see Libya).
MFWinAlford   •   Wed Nov 16 2011 at 03:14am PST
Job, you want Libya? The “UN warned of an increasing risk of a Libyan-style civil war in Syria as defections among the army increased.” according to
job   •   Thu Nov 17 2011 at 02:17am PST
We also see the first soldiers choosing the side of the people. So there is some hope of a change in Syria within the nex year!
MFWinAlford   •   Sat Nov 12 2011 at 09:03am PST
“Syria threatened with Arab League suspension”

This market is currently pricing the probability that Assad stays in power beyond the end of next year at around 50%. That seems too high to me!

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Nov 09 2011 at 06:44pm PST
“The United Nations has said there is an increasing risk of a Libyan-style civil war in Syria, as more Syrian soldiers deployed by the government to quell the country’s uprising are defecting to the opposition.”

job   •   Sun Oct 16 2011 at 02:00am PDT
October 1 -15 can be closed
job   •   Sat Oct 01 2011 at 12:55am PDT
September 16-30 2011 can be closed.
job   •   Fri Sep 16 2011 at 10:18am PDT
September 1-15 can be closed
MFWinAlford   •   Thu Aug 18 2011 at 09:21am PDT
From today’s WSJ:

WASHINGTON—President Barack Obama and European leaders issued an explicit call Thursday for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down, the first time they have done so, and announced tighter sanctions against the regime.

Mr. Obama condemned what he called the Assad government’s “sustained onslaught” against its own people.

“The future of Syria must be determined by its people, but President Bashar al-Assad is standing in their way,” Mr. Obama said. "We have consistently said that President Assad must lead a democratic transition or get out of the way.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Aug 18 2011 at 11:04am PDT

Reasons for Prediction

"Because his regime has remained largely stable and he still controls Damascus, Latakia, Tartus, & most of Aleppo."
2014 or later
August 04, 2012 @ 01:42pm PDT

"Because the Free Syrian Army is not really that strong, and al-Assad still has support from Russia and China."
August 07, 2012 @ 12:37pm PDT

"FSA is winning and taking over territory. Assad's army has not won any victories for the last 2-3 months since the July assassination on his generals."
November 23, 2012 @ 11:37pm PST

"Sheer intuition"
April - December 2012
February 06, 2012 @ 12:53pm PST

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