On September 30th, 2006 who will be the leader of Cuba? (Inkling Markets Public Marketplace)

On September 30th, 2006 who will be the leader of Cuba?

Ends: 09/30/06 @ 08:59 PM PDT

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TIP:

Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur.

PREDICTIONS	CURRENT VALUE	TODAY
Raul Castro	$91.69/ $100.00	(closed)
Fidel Castro	$8.13/ $0.00	(closed)
Someone Else	$0.18/ $0.00	(closed)

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market information

In response to a question someone asked me:

This market’s outcome will be based on who the media consensus indicates is running the day-day operations of the country on the closing. Things which suggest daily running of the country include attending official functions, speaking as a representative of the country, etc.

This market closes on September 30th, 11:59pm EDT (Cuba time)

stock information

Raul Castro

Raul Castro will be the acting leader of Cuba at closing.

Fidel Castro

Fidel Castro will be the acting leader of Cuba.

This stock also closes immediately at $0 if Fidel Castro dies or unequivocally announces he won’t return to leadership before the closing date.

Someone Else

This closes at $100 if someone other than Raul or Fidel Castro is running the country. Otherwise it closes at $0