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Who will win the 2008 United States Presidential Election?

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POSSIBLE ANSWERS	PREDICTED CHANCE	TODAY
Al Gore (closed)	PREDICTED 0.00%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Barack Obama (closed)	PREDICTED 97.18%	ACTUAL 100.00%
Bill Richardson (closed)	PREDICTED 0.00%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Bob Barr (closed)	PREDICTED 0.00%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Fred Thompson (closed)	PREDICTED 0.00%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Hillary Clinton (closed)	PREDICTED 0.00%	ACTUAL 0.00%
John Edwards (closed)	PREDICTED 0.00%	ACTUAL 0.00%
John McCain (closed)	PREDICTED 2.81%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Mike Bloomberg (closed)	PREDICTED 0.00%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Mike Huckabee (closed)	PREDICTED 0.00%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Mitt Romney (closed)	PREDICTED 0.00%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Newt Gingrich (closed)	PREDICTED 0.00%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Ralph Nader (closed)	PREDICTED 0.00%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Ron Paul (closed)	PREDICTED 0.00%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Rudy Giuliani (closed)	PREDICTED 0.00%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Sam Brownback (closed)	PREDICTED 0.00%	ACTUAL 0.00%
Tommy Thompson (closed)	PREDICTED 0.00%	ACTUAL 0.00%

Question ends

November 04, 2008 @ 05:16pm PST

created by

PerfectHandle (all their questions)

Predictions Made

2854 (Most: Garth Brewer)

Discussion

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Date

hawver • Mon Sep 08 2008 at 08:36pm PDT

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm

PerfectHandle • Tue May 13 2008 at 07:30am PDT

Hey guys…Bob Barr just entered the race as a Libertarian.

wstritt • Thu May 15 2008 at 09:09pm PDT

Hillary has a better shot than Barr of winning (i.e. none) so its a bit shocking that he has a higher probability of winning than she does.

PerfectHandle • Thu May 22 2008 at 12:58pm PDT

Barr started high, since you can’t start anyone lower than the avg of the market. He’s been sinking since he announced.

PerfectHandle • Tue Apr 03 2007 at 09:14am PDT

Where will Boston City Hall be moved?

Who will be the Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee

Who will be the Republican Vice Presidential Nominee

Reasons for Prediction

"This seems a bit lopsided, considering the polls."
John McCain
August 30, 2008 @ 01:12am PDT

"way oversold"
John McCain
October 02, 2008 @ 09:50pm PDT

"Underdog, maybe.. but this seems very low"
John McCain
October 31, 2008 @ 01:05am PDT

"I think Barack will win "
Barack Obama
September 09, 2008 @ 01:50pm PDT

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Background information

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On November 4, 2008, Americans will elect the 44th President of the United States. Who will it be?

In all likelihood, the winner is in this market. If viable non-listed candidates emerge, they will be floated at $1.

EDIT – I tried to float Bloomberg at $1, but it wouldn’t let me. I hope that doesn’t cause anyone too much trouble. Right now, he seems a little high to me.

Edit 2 – I just floated Mike Huckabee. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to float a new stock any lower than the market average, which is currently third place.

Candidates will not be closed out. The market will sort out what value a candidate has, bottoming out at $0 as they are elimated.

The winner of the 2008 Presidential election will be closed out at $100. All others will be closed out at $0.