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Who will win the Michigan GOP Presidential Primary being held on 28 February 2012?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS PREDICTED CHANCE TODAY
PREDICTED
83.05%
ACTUAL
100.00%
PREDICTED
1.80%
ACTUAL
0.00%
PREDICTED
1.26%
ACTUAL
0.00%
PREDICTED
0.23%
ACTUAL
0.00%
PREDICTED
16.64%
ACTUAL
0.00%
PREDICTED
0.73%
ACTUAL
0.00%
PREDICTED
0.07%
ACTUAL
0.00%

Question ends

February 28, 2012 @ 12:30pm PST
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Predictions Made

179 (Most: SneakyPete)
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SneakyPete   •   Tue Feb 28 2012 at 09:21pm PST
SneakyPete   •   Tue Feb 28 2012 at 09:45am PST
Michael Moore Urges Democrats to Vote for Santorum.

Filmmaker and Michigan native Michael Moore told Rachel Maddow that he’s encouraging Democrats to vote in today’s Republican presidential primary.

Said Moore: “A lot of my Democratic friends are going to vote for Santorum tomorrow in something they are calling, Operation Hilarity. We do have a good sense of humor in the state of Michigan.”

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/02/28/michael_moore_urges_democrats_to_vote_for_santorum.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PoliticalWire+%28Political+Wire%29

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Feb 28 2012 at 11:17am PST
Interesting. I watched the video. I didn’t hear him say anything about “encouraging Democrats to vote in today’s Republican presidential primary” — unless I missed it, that was totally made up! The direct quote was correct. I don’t know if politicalwire.com has a political leaning, but it seems they can lie just as well as any politician.

What Moore did say that was pretty funny is that Mitt and Rick seem to be trying to offend as many people as possible to see who can get the fewest votes. If Willard loses the state where he was born and his father was President of an auto company and later Governor, one has to think he’s all washed up. As Moore said, voting against a Romney in Michigan is like voting against a Kennedy in Massachusetts. Funny, but Mittens came close to defeating Ted Kennedy in one of Ted’s many successful runs for reelection to the US Senate…

SneakyPete   •   Tue Feb 28 2012 at 11:35am PST
Not sure of what, if any particular political leaning, Taegan D. Goddard has. He seems to be well respected on both sides of the political arena. As for Moore, I believe that he is just jumping in to stir the pot as usual. I also found it funny that Santorum is taking Moor’s idea and using “Robo Calls” trying to get Democrats to also vote for him. It may help him in Michigan, BUT hurt him in the long run, I believe.
MFWinAlford   •   Tue Feb 28 2012 at 12:19pm PST
Agreed. I saw a quote somewhere from someone in his campaign saying they are going after the “Reagan Democrats” and the theory is they will keep them in the General. Horsefeathers! There is such strong anti-Romney sentiment this year I think a lot of people just want to see him go away. Since he was my Governor before we were fortunate enough to have Deval Patrick replace him, I share that sentiment. The only useful thing he did in Massachusetts was to collaborate with Ted Kennedy to pass the bill now referred to by his opponents as “Romneycare” — the model for “Obamacare” (true) — this has been hugely successful and popular in the Bay State.
SneakyPete   •   Thu Feb 23 2012 at 09:41am PST
It appears that Rick Santorum’s standing, is taking a huge hit from media pressure and attention, along with his poor performance in the Arizona debate last night.
MFWinAlford   •   Thu Feb 23 2012 at 11:44am PST
Well, maybe, but that hasn’t shown up in the polls yet. The latest ARG poll in Michigan still shows him in the lead.
MFWinAlford   •   Tue Feb 28 2012 at 06:16am PST
Update: “After Many Momentum Shifts, Michigan Too Close to Call” http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/28/after-many-momentum-shifts-michigan-too-close-to-call/

If Santorum wins in Michigan, that will be HUGE. He’s already leading in the polls in several states, including large margins in Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. A win in Michigan would probably improve his standings for Super Tuesday. This could be the beginning of the end for the Mittster.

SneakyPete   •   Mon Feb 20 2012 at 10:07am PST
After Bailout of Auto Industry, Detroit Fallout Trails Romney.

As Congress and the White House scrambled in the fall of 2008 to confront the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression, Mitt Romney felt compelled to say what many in his native Michigan would consider heresy: Do not bail out the troubled American automakers.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/20/us/politics/after-auto-bailout-detroit-fallout-trails-romney.html?_r=1&ref=politics

We will see if Romney’s 2008 statement, will hurt him, on the 28 February vote in Michign.

foobar   •   Mon Feb 20 2012 at 10:25am PST
I’m sure his past statement about Detroit is going to hurt him – I’m just not sure how much. But this market seems to think, presently, that Romney is not going to win Michigan. That loss will be HUGE – if it happens…
SneakyPete   •   Mon Feb 20 2012 at 10:35am PST
You are very correct, He cannot afford to be losing his home state.
MFWinAlford   •   Mon Feb 20 2012 at 11:30am PST
Right now, the polls are pointing to a loss for Willard. Nate Silver agrees, but also says “There is reason, apart from the polling, to think that Mr. Santorum’s chances are not that strong, however, and that his lead is more tenuous than normal. Specifically, Mr. Romney has a substantial advertising advantage in Michigan, something that could continue to pay dividends for him. In fact, the betting market Intrade now gives Mr. Santorum just a 35 percent chance of winning Michigan.” http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/20/in-michigan-momentum-for-romney/

So, he concludes, this race is a “toss-up”…

SneakyPete   •   Mon Feb 20 2012 at 06:07pm PST
Agree full heartedly on being a toss-up. Santorum’s comments over the weekend probably will not help him in the long run but not sure if the impact will take place, by the 28th. It is curious that many of the polling sites are showing that the race is getting with-in the margin of error (a toss-up) the close to the 28th we get. (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/, http://www.politico.com/2012-election/presidential-polls/ and http://www.nationalpolls.com/michigan.html) We shall see.
MFWinAlford   •   Tue Feb 21 2012 at 05:14am PST
Just to give you a piece of useful mathematical information: the infamous MOE is often mistakenly used to declare a poll “a statistical tie” in the manner you suggest. This is nonsense. If a candidate is in the lead, that’s the end of the story. The only time that would not be true would be if the MOE was 100%; then you could say that the lead is not distinguishable from zero. At the other extreme, a MOE of zero would say that the poll is an absolutely accurate representation of the larger population. Anything in between means that the lead has an X% chance of representing the entire population from which the polling sample was taken. This is usually a pretty high number. So, a lead is a lead, period.

The reason this race is a toss-up, in my view, is that the polling is changing. That suggests to me that Willard is doing something right (maybe it’s the advertising), and that he will continue to pick up support. That said, if the election were held today, he’d lose.

SneakyPete   •   Sat Feb 18 2012 at 05:32pm PST
Susan B. Anthony List to endorse Santorum…

The group is announcing Friday it will back the former Pennsylvania senator over Mitt Romney and the other Republican hopefuls. It’s the first time the group has endorsed in a presidential primary.

The group plans to organize activists, particularly in Michigan, before the state’s Feb. 28 primary.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/02/17/susan-b-anthony-list-to-endorse-santorum/#ixzz1mmrsJfRb

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