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How many of the major candidates (as defined) will remain in the GOP presidential nomination contest as of March 8, 2012?

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POSSIBLE ANSWERS	PREDICTED CHANCE	TODAY
0. Zero. (closed)	PREDICTED 0.01%	ACTUAL 0.00%
1. One. (closed)	PREDICTED 0.13%	ACTUAL 0.00%
2. Two. (closed)	PREDICTED 0.40%	ACTUAL 0.00%
3. Three. (closed)	PREDICTED 6.13%	ACTUAL 0.00%
4. Four. (closed)	PREDICTED 93.32%	ACTUAL 100.00%
5. Five. (closed)	PREDICTED 0.88%	ACTUAL 0.00%
6. Six. (closed)	PREDICTED 0.88%	ACTUAL 0.00%
7. Seven. (closed)	PREDICTED 3.80%	ACTUAL 0.00%
8. Eight. (closed)	PREDICTED 1.92%	ACTUAL 0.00%

Question ends

March 06, 2012 @ 09:00am PST

created by

mvguy (all their questions)

Predictions Made

419 (Most: MFWinAlford)

Discussion

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Date

SneakyPete • Wed Feb 29 2012 at 08:30pm PST

Super Tuesday Unlikely to Decide Race
Peter Hamby notes “the mechanics of the 2012 Republican race are beginning to resemble those of the 2008 Democratic nomination fight, a grind-it-out battle for delegates that could last through well into the spring.”

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/02/29/super_tuesday_unlikely_to_decide_race.html

SneakyPete • Wed Feb 29 2012 at 08:49am PST

I beleive that we will be seeing the remaining four, still in the race for a while yet, well past the 8 March 2012 date.

mvguy • Wed Feb 29 2012 at 11:10am PST

I can’t see Gingrich staying in much longer if he loses Georgia. But if he wins there, he’ll probably compete in the other Southern primaries coming up soon.

SneakyPete • Wed Feb 29 2012 at 11:34am PST

I agree if he did lose Georgia, however from what I see in the polls, he is still ahead by 10% – 15% currently. Of course, alot can happen between now, and next Tuesday.

mvguy • Tue Mar 06 2012 at 06:49am PST

It’s looking now like Gingrich will win Georgia. It’s going to be long spring.

SneakyPete • Tue Mar 06 2012 at 07:42am PST

You have that right. May could be the month we see drop outs taking place. Will also be a long night tonight. Ohio and Tennessee will interesting to watch.

phyguy123 • Fri Feb 10 2012 at 07:21pm PST

Gingrich and Santorum will wait for Texas before making a decision to drop out. Unless something awful happens, like Gingrich loses Georgia, I can’t see him going out.

mvguy • Tue Feb 21 2012 at 11:55am PST

Gingrich losing Georgia is a real possibility. If Santorum does well on Tuesday, it’s going to become clear that we have a two-person race.

SneakyPete • Tue Feb 21 2012 at 12:07pm PST

You are correct. It is a real possibility that Gingrich may just lose his home state. It is “neck and neck” in the polls today.

loaldo • Sun Jan 22 2012 at 03:18pm PST

Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich will fight to the bitter end and Santorum will try to prove that he is worth being a VP running mate.

mvguy • Wed Feb 08 2012 at 11:40pm PST

Or maybe Gingrich will drop out rather than humiliate himself.

SneakyPete • Fri Feb 17 2012 at 09:15am PST

I doubt that Gingrich, or anyone else for that matter, will be dropping out any time soon. The race will go on, and on, and on, it seems for all four.

mvguy • Sun Jan 08 2012 at 12:05pm PST

“Three” is leading the market now, and I think that’s a good prediction. They’ll be Romney (of course), Paul (because he’s campaigning for a cause rather than the nomination) and whoever becomes the anti-Romney-or-Paul candidate, probably Santorum or Gingrich.

SneakyPete • Sun Jan 08 2012 at 12:43pm PST

You are mostly likely correct and right on for the number “3”. Depending on Florida, I believe that Gingrich, will end up as number 3.

mvguy • Thu Jan 12 2012 at 10:54am PST

Of course, it’s also possible that the race will be over then and only Paul is remaining as a nominal opponent. That’s what the market seems to be saying now.

SneakyPete • Sun Jan 15 2012 at 07:41am PST

I agree. Ron Paul will hang in there, as long as he can, to get his message out.

SneakyPete • Mon Nov 14 2011 at 08:09pm PST

We should see dropouts at the end of January, with voting taking place in Iowa followed by South Carolina, Hew Hampshire and ending on the 31st, with Florida. These four voting states, will shake the tree, of a number of potential canidates. Will be an interesting month.

Reasons for Prediction

"Gingrich will drop out, Romney, Santorum, and Paul will stay in."
3. Three.
February 26, 2012 @ 08:15am PST

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Background information

Major candidates are defined as the following:

Herman Cain
Newt Gingrich
Mitt Romney
Michele Bachmann
Ron Paul
Rick Perry
Rick Santorum
Jon Huntsman

Cashout will be based on the state of the race as of 6 a.m. ET on March 8. Note that the market closes on March 6, Super Tuesday.

A candidate will be deemed to have dropped out if he/she announces as such and/or endorses another candidate. Suspending a campaign (sometimes done for legal reasons) will count as dropping out if the media treat it as a de facto withdrawal.

The market creator will not participate until the market has been open at least 24 hours.