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When will President Saleh of Yemen arrive in the USA?

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POSSIBLE ANSWERS	PREDICTED CHANCE	TODAY
a. January 6 or earlier (closed)	PREDICTED 0.22%	ACTUAL 0.00%
b. January 7 - 11 (closed)	PREDICTED 0.33%	ACTUAL 0.00%
c. January 12 - 16 (closed)	PREDICTED 0.44%	ACTUAL 0.00%
d. January 17 - 21 (closed)	PREDICTED 0.51%	ACTUAL 0.00%
e. January 22 - 25 (closed)	PREDICTED 0.04%	ACTUAL 0.04%
f. January 26 - 31 (closed)	PREDICTED 96.27%	ACTUAL 96.27%
g. February 1 - 5 (closed)	PREDICTED 0.00%	ACTUAL 0.00%
h. February 6 - 11 (closed)	PREDICTED 1.60%	ACTUAL 1.60%
i. February 12 or later (or never) (closed)	PREDICTED 2.07%	ACTUAL 2.07%

Question ends

February 14, 2012 @ 04:35am PST

created by

job (all their questions)

Predictions Made

212 (Most: MFWinAlford)

Discussion

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Date

job • Mon Jan 30 2012 at 04:19pm PST

Sorry, I’am on a little island in Lombok Indonesia and it is difficult to follow this game. I thought the snswer was still unknow. I will cash out jan 26 – 31 on jan 23!

MFWinAlford • Mon Jan 30 2012 at 05:20pm PST

This was not a good solution! I got totally hosed, and at this point I can’t even remember all that led up to this conclusion. I think you should have gone back farther, but quite frankly it is all water under the bridge at this time. My view is that, in light of all the confusion, you should just refund the market, as if it didn’t happen. Just my opinion.

Meanwhile, I hope you’re enjoying your holiday!

1 person likes this

SneakyPete • Mon Jan 30 2012 at 05:29pm PST

I agree with the refund option. Probably the best solution for all.

onedave • Mon Jan 30 2012 at 05:42pm PST

I see no reason to refund this question. Saleh clearly arrived in the US between January 26 and January 31.

job • Mon Jan 30 2012 at 06:54pm PST

I agee also with the refund option. Because of all the different stories in the newspapers and the fact that we don’t know for sure at what time the answer was known.

ecotax • Tue Jan 31 2012 at 12:58am PST

I can’t say I’m too happy with the refund option, because this will bring my value down nearly 10% and there clearly is a correct answer, but given the messy situation it may be for the best.
And do enjoy your stay in former Nederlandsch Indië.

MFWinAlford • Mon Jan 30 2012 at 05:24pm PST

btw, my objection is partly based on my own records and spreadsheet, which show that I had positions that are not even reflected in the payouts. It’s a total mess, and I don’t know if it all could be reconstructed, unless you want to go through it one trade at a time.

wstritt • Mon Jan 30 2012 at 04:18am PST

This market was prematurely and incorrectly cashed out. While Saleh may have left Yemen somewhere from the 22nd-25th, he did not arrive in the United States until January 26th-31st. January 26th-31st should cash out at 100.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/official-yemen-president-arrives-in-us-for-medical-treatment/2012/01/28/gIQAvSwXYQ_story.html

Best Record • Mon Jan 30 2012 at 07:49am PST

What’s going on here? Instead of cashing out at the correct date, the market creator has opened it up and has traded the prices to be in his favor. How sleazy is that???

wstritt • Mon Jan 30 2012 at 09:46am PST

It does seem like this should have just cashed out with the correct date. Second best would have been to cash it out with “uh-oh” as of Jan 23rd so people who rushed in to Jan 22-25 on original rumors then got stuck due to premature close out aren’t unduly punished. But re-opening when the answer is known and trading on known answer inappropriately benefits current traders AND screws the ones that got locked into old cash out and couldn’t get out.

I am now going to short Jan 22-25 to zero and, no, I should not be the beneficiary of that either.

wstritt • Sat Jan 28 2012 at 01:28pm PST

Looks like he is actually arriving Sunday, January 29th.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/yemeni-president-heads-to-us/2012/01/28/gIQAR1rpXQ_story.html

ecotax • Mon Jan 30 2012 at 12:54pm PST

I’m sorry if my previous post caused confusion. I didn’t know the date was incorrectly reported in the sources I provided. In retrospect, I could have suspected this, with so few other sources reporting this.

ecotax • Thu Jan 26 2012 at 02:06pm PST

It doesn’t appear to be a major news item, but here:
http://www.criticalthreats.org/gulf-aden-security-review/gulf-aden-security-review-january-26-2012#_edn1
I could find this: “President Ali Abdullah Saleh reportedly arrived in New York City late on January 25, where he will receive medical treatment for injuries sustained during an attack on his presidential compound in June last year”, with a nice link to the for me incomprehensible source.
So it seems January 22- 25 is the correct answer.

MFWinAlford • Wed Jan 25 2012 at 07:45am PST

“Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen’s president, has flown to the US for medical treatment, as his country prepares for elections next month for his successor, according to an Omani official.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/yemen/9038950/Yemens-Ali-Abdullah-Saleh-flies-to-US.html

ecotax • Sun Jan 22 2012 at 12:29pm PST

Admittedly against my expectations, Saleh seems to have left Yemen and will arrive in the US soon:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/01/20121221525562988.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-22/yemen-s-saleh-departs-for-u-s-with-immunity.html
So the only thing to left to predict here is exactly when he will arrive.

job • Wed Jan 04 2012 at 08:38am PST

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh will not travel to the United States, a senior aide has said, reversing a pledge by the leader who has withstood nearly a year of protests and military challenges from rivals seeking to topple him.

“The idea of President Saleh’s visit to America is now unlikely,” Abdu al-Janadi, a senior figure in Saleh’s political party and Yemen’s deputy information minister, told reporters on Wednesday.

He said members of Saleh’s party asked him to remain and help ensure that the deputy to whom Saleh has formally transferred power succeeds him in an election set for February.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/01/201214142931124457.html

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Background information

The US is still evaluating Saleh’s request for a visa. Washington is trying to ensure that Saleh visits only for medical care and does not plan to stay, US officials said this week.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/12/201112314217998316.html