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While it started out as a fun market, it has turned into a PITA, thanks mostly to a pretty effective set of crowd dispersal techniques employed by the gendarme.
We all agreed with 90 as the number reached at sunday evening. After that trading in this question was speculating about more arrests to come. No summit related arrest however took place. So to be fair to the traders who had taken positions on the base of CB number at sunday evening, it is fair to end this question with the final number of 90!
What we still can’t verify is the number of detentions. MFW suggests an approximation; however, I can’t recall any other Inkling markets settling on an approximation, can you? I’d hate to set that precedent here.
I’m sure we will all respect whatever decision you make, CB, though there may be some carping. You’re in a difficult spot, but of course it is one of your own making! ;)
This is the original source of the 100 detained people. But if you read the article it is all about this statement:
“Police said they arrested at least 45 people Sunday. The National Lawyers Guild estimated 60 arrests Sunday and more than 100 since the summit began.”
That is only a difference of 15 arrests on sunday! The 100 where all the arrests since then, and as the police later reported only 8 more than the police reported.
After all the 113 of CB are the highest ever mentioned anywhere and in my opinion propbably too high.
I will concede the post-summit 15.
Does anyone have a source for detentions because most of our “neutral observers” agree that detentions should be included?
Without any detentions, I would close this at 113.
Please let me see any detention sources within a day or two. Thanks.
Anyone interested in protestor arrests at the party conventions?
“Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy says the protests of the NATO Summit resulted in 45 people being arrested and four officers suffering injuries – one from a stab wound in the leg. http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268773/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=TmySeWh8
That brings my informal estimate to 90, with 2+ more days left in this market."
This is sharply higher than the 45 reported by the police. Again, may be the semantics of “arrested” versus “detained”…"
If I have time later I’ll try to search the web about NATO detentions. If anyone finds anything, let me know…and the closer the source is to “official” the happier job will be.
I also think the detentions should count because of what was written at the beginning of the market, that they would count. I think “detentions” are a way of getting people off the streets who are, from police perspective, causing trouble. If I set up a similar market at some time, I would not count detentions as I have noticed in my life that police will use events such as the summit to clean up the streets of “criminals” totally unrelated to the event itself.
Also, for what it is worth, while I traded in this market, I currently hold no position so, short of a refund, there is no impact on my net worth one way or the other though, for ranking purposes, there might be an indirect impact based on how cash out impacts others.
In regards to detentions, if a specific number could be determined I think they should be included in this market.
Seems like I missed out on quite a bit of fun, lol.
All that said, I don’t have a lot at stake here. At one point, I had some 15 million inkles invested here, but as it became apparent that the outcome wouldn’t support that, I slowly sold off shares and ended with about 3 million. The numbers being discussed here are somewhere around breakeven for me.
What’s your opinion on the post-summit 15?
The Sunday Tribune had an article limiting the 91 arrests to “between 5-18 and 5-21”. Here is the link: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/ct-met-nato-arrests-box-20120527,0,3443630.story
I went back through all of our comments to identify arrests made prior to 5-18 and found 22. 91 + 22 = 113. Then there are the 15 arrested after that job challenged me on, but no one else has said anything one way or the other. I’m still inclined to count them. 113 + 15 = 128.
Make your arguments in the next 24 hours.
All in all a very disappointing finish. But, a fun market to play.
My feeling is that the protest wouldn’t have gone forward in a typical week in Chicago. It was all part of protest week. Also, while I’ll give you the fact that it wasn’t an anti-war protest, it was a 99%-er theme and there were lots of occupy groups at the NATO protests….
What say others?
Let me know your thoughts. And also, whether you have any sources for detentions.
The number of arrests keeps bouncing around. Did anyone here of any on Monday? At the end of Sunday, we were pretty sure of 90 arrests and an unknown number of detentions.
It looks like this will be the answer of this question
Please let us know!
BTW: I think that the most reliable and unambiguous are the official reports from the police about the ARRESTS they made.
Undoubtedly there will be arrests related to the summit. Just how many heads will CPD crack? This should be interesting.
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