This market ends on May 11, 2007. How will it be resolved at that time?

And I sure hope no one is using Wikipedia for their trade decisions on this one – they are wildly off from reality.

Sorry to be such a gadfly on this one but clarification is needed. If the GDP is the measure, how do you exclude PPP (purchasing power parity)? Which would make China already the world’s second largest economy as measured by the U.S. dollar – by far! Or did you mean GDP excluding “per capital PPP”

https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/docs/notesanddefs.html#2001

Whew! Well that clarifies it for me all right. I think I will leave this market to top guy, onemike – he’s the economist if I remember correctly.

But thanks for being such a responsive market-maker!

After running some numbers it does seem like it might take a bit longer than to the end of 2007. I used historical data from Mathematica’s CountryData[] function.

Does this figure excludes the special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau? Also what data will be considered, IMF or World Bank?
Please clarify

Also would you clarify what exchange rate that’s used? I suppose GDP figures are going to be converted to USD using market exchange rate on Dec 31, 2007

If the recent revisions to China’s GDP estimates hold, it turns out the answer was “Yes”.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j1FZRNA_nf7XY7YePH-Od-tdunFAD95MSV3O0