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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| Libertarian Party | $93.34/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Green Party | $2.41/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Constitution Party | $1.12/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Reform Party | $0.82/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Other | $2.29/ $0.00 | (closed) |
FREE INKLE IDEA FOR WEEK OF 9/29
It is possible to sell stock in the Libertarian Party for $90.94 in What third party will get the most votes in 2008? and buy at $72.81 in What third party will garner the largest percentage of the popular vote in 2008?. Why such an attractive spread between the two markets?
The answer is in the details. The first market maker states explicitly that “Other” does not include independents. In the second market, independents are counted. If a single independent candidate defeats all of the fringe parties, stock in “Other” will pay out.
Will Ralph Nader (Independent) earn more votes than Bob Barr (Libertarian)? Will a write-in campaign for Hillary Clinton beat all of the registered third party options? It is impossible to say. If you buy this trade and either of the above occurs, you will lose money. Sometimes the best way to earn inkles is to wait for a better trade.
In the 2008 presidencal election there will be more than just Democrats, Republicans, or Independents running. So what third party do you think will get the most votes?
The Libertarian Party
The Green Party
The Constitution Party
The Reform Party
Any other party this does not include Independents