Will the Facebook Causes app raise more than $825,000 in December 2007?

Background information

The Non-Profit Tech Blog at www.nonprofittechblog.org posted an article about the Facebook app called Causes. Causes allows Facebook users to raise money for their favorite charity. Despite its positive review, several commenters on the blog were skeptical about the ability of the Causes app to raise significant amounts of money. This market is to help decide the question via a decision market. The makers of the Causes app, Project Agape, have agreed to reveal the amount raised for December 2007 as soon as the period ends.

Causes has roughly 4,000,000 users as of 9/8/2007 and is adding users at a rate of around 500,000 a week. For additional information on Causes users, please check http://adonomics.com/display/2318966938 so you can see the number of users being added to Causes. This raises interesting questions for nonprofit fundraisers and techies alike. Will the ever-increasing numbers of users translate to donations during December (the biggest month of giving during the year)? If we assume Causes to have around six to seven million users by December, can Causes raise roughly eleven to fourteen cents per user in order to hit the $825,000 mark? The $825,000 was chosen as the halfway mark between Causes app “skeptics” and Causes app “believers”.

Remember, if the price of this stock is over 50, that means that the market is thinking that the Causes app will raise more than $825,000. If it’s less than 50, the market is thinking that the Causes app will raise less than $825,000.