Which technology will dominate the cell phone application market?

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POSSIBLE ANSWERS	PREDICTED CHANCE	TODAY
Flash Lite (closed) » more info	PREDICTED 10.69%	ACTUAL 10.69%
Java ME (closed) » more info	PREDICTED 13.75%	ACTUAL 13.75%
JavaFX (closed) » more info	PREDICTED 17.55%	ACTUAL 17.55%
None (closed) » more info	PREDICTED 11.26%	ACTUAL 11.26%
Other (closed) » more info	PREDICTED 11.53%	ACTUAL 11.53%
Python (closed) » more info	PREDICTED 11.72%	ACTUAL 11.72%
Qt (closed) » more info	PREDICTED 11.26%	ACTUAL 11.26%
Web/JavaScript (closed) » more info	PREDICTED 12.21%	ACTUAL 12.21%

Question ends

December 31, 2010 @ 11:59pm PST

created by

davidw (all their questions)

Predictions Made

54 (Most: Lorin7919)

Discussion

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Date

onemike • Mon Sep 10 2007 at 10:14am PDT

How will you resolve the market and expire the contracts? Is there a reliable data source (that can be certain of being around in 2010) that you intend to rely upon?

Also, you may want to specify some standard for “dominate” so that your “None” option has a definite meaning. Does the dominate technology have to have (say) at least a 40 percent market share on phones sold during 2010, or how will you measure?

This is an interesting (and potentially valuable) market, but I think it needs just a little clarification.

davidw • Mon Sep 10 2007 at 01:08pm PDT

Good question. The deciding factor should be the phones shipping at that time, and what they ship with natively (i.e. Python doesn’t count unless they ship with a Python interpreter). I honestly don’t know the best way to measure that now, let alone in three years, with how fast these things change. By “dominate”, let’s say more than 60%.

davidw • Mon Sep 10 2007 at 03:06pm PDT

Oops, major think-o – I forgot Flash Lite, which I just added – sorry about that.

Reasons for Prediction

"Python is excellent for rapid development, and may well find wider usage in the mobile sector."
Python
August 08, 2010 @ 02:06pm PDT

"Moore's law make the advantages of other general purpose prg. lang's smaller over time"
Python
November 05, 2010 @ 08:27pm PDT

price chart

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Background information

Currently, the most widely deployed system for developing mobile phone applications is Sun’s Java ME. Will it continue to be the most popular system, or will something else supplant it?

More information about the possible answers

Flash Lite

Flash Lite will dominate the market.

Java ME

Java ME or a variant thereof will be the most widely utilized technology for building cell phone application.s

JavaFX

Sun’s JavaFX scripting language will take off and be the most widely used system for building cell phone applications.

None

No one technology will dominate the market in the near future – it will become fragmented.

Other

Some other technology will take the market by storm and pass all the other competitors, coming to dominate the cell phone application market.

Python

Python – either “native”, Jython, or some other variant of the python language – will come to be the most commonly used technology to develop cell phone applications.

Qt

Troll Tech’s Qt

Web/JavaScript

Applications, just like “web 2.0” (for lack of a better term), will become web applications utilizing html, javascript, and server side logic, that supplant applications written for the device itself.

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