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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| JavaFX | $18.31 | 0.00 |
| Other | $11.79 | 0.00 |
| Python | $11.75 | 0.00 |
| Java ME | $11.74 | 0.00 |
| Web/JavaScript | $11.74 | 0.00 |
| Qt | $11.74 | 0.00 |
| None | $11.74 | 0.00 |
| Flash Lite | $11.15 | 0.00 |
How will you resolve the market and expire the contracts? Is there a reliable data source (that can be certain of being around in 2010) that you intend to rely upon?
Also, you may want to specify some standard for “dominate” so that your “None” option has a definite meaning. Does the dominate technology have to have (say) at least a 40 percent market share on phones sold during 2010, or how will you measure?
This is an interesting (and potentially valuable) market, but I think it needs just a little clarification.
Good question. The deciding factor should be the phones shipping at that time, and what they ship with natively (i.e. Python doesn’t count unless they ship with a Python interpreter). I honestly don’t know the best way to measure that now, let alone in three years, with how fast these things change. By “dominate”, let’s say more than 60%.
Oops, major think-o – I forgot Flash Lite, which I just added – sorry about that.
Currently, the most widely deployed system for developing mobile phone applications is Sun’s Java ME. Will it continue to be the most popular system, or will something else supplant it?
Sun’s JavaFX scripting language will take off and be the most widely used system for building cell phone applications.
Some other technology will take the market by storm and pass all the other competitors, coming to dominate the cell phone application market.
Python – either “native”, Jython, or some other variant of the python language – will come to be the most commonly used technology to develop cell phone applications.
Java ME or a variant thereof will be the most widely utilized technology for building cell phone application.s
Applications, just like “web 2.0” (for lack of a better term), will become web applications utilizing html, javascript, and server side logic, that supplant applications written for the device itself.
Troll Tech’s Qt
No one technology will dominate the market in the near future – it will become fragmented.
Flash Lite will dominate the market.