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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| Other fatal outcome | $69.75 | 0.00 |
| He died on impact | $21.09 | 0.00 |
| He died of natural causes inflight | $4.17 | 0.00 |
| He died after crash | $1.87 | 0.00 |
| He survived | $1.23/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Unknown | $1.87/ $0.00 | (closed) |
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Suppose he is found but the cause of death is unknown. Which choice would that be? Thanks.
Edited “FOUL” to support this outcome. Thanks mvguy for pointing this out.
The court system has declared him dead. Of course, that doesn’t mean he is dead since they never found anything…
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23190782/
Due to popular demand, this market is reopened. Sorry I closed it in the first place! I will only close it again should a definitive answer to the outcome be released in the news, or the market expires (which will be either Unknown or Other Fatal Outcome depending on the results of the “remains” testing).
From some of the reports I’ve read suggesting that Fossett could not have survived the impact of the crash, it seems likely that he either “died on impact” or that he “died of natural causes in flight” which resulted in the crash. Absent some “black box” telemetry data (did his plane have one?), given the state of the remains, it seems unlikely that forensic evidence will be able to discern the difference.
If the official conclusion is that he “probably” died on impact (but they don’t know with certainty), does that default to “other fatal outcome” or does that go to “died on impact”?
“Unknown” (defined as: We will not find Steve and discover Steve’s outcome before January 1st, 2010) seems to be out of the running since they have found his remains.
Sorry I’ve been away for a bit. “Unknown” and “He survived” are impossible now based on DNA evidence. “He died after crash” is also very unlikely given the physics of the impact.
Most likely this market will close with “Other fatal outcome” winning simply because they won’t be able to figure out if he died in the air or on impact. (I don’t know if there’s a flight recorder, nor if it could show pilot reaction to conditions immediately prior to the crash).
I won’t close out the market until it expires or they can say more definitively what happened.
Looks like The Discovery Channel is going to figure it out. Special airing Monday night: Steve Fossett: What Went Wrong
Steve Fossett is one of our time’s most amazing people; literally a walking hero. On September 3rd, 2007, he disappeared flying a Bellanca Super Decathlon plane. The Civil Air Patrol gave up their search efforts on October 2nd, 2007.
What do YOU think the outcome of his disappearance will be?
Steve died, but not of natural causes in flight, nor from the crash, nor from exposure trying to reach safety. This includes foul play (murder), animal attacks, and basically anything else not covered in the other fatal outcomes.
mvguy pointed out there was no option for “found (dead) Steve and plane, but the coroner can’t determine cause of death.” I am editing this option to cover this case; i.e., they find Steve but they’re unable to determine the cause of death (and this being the “wild card” option already).
Steve died on impact when his aircraft crashed, or immediately thereafter due to gross bodily trauma. Note that this implies either pilot error or normal mechanical failure of the aircraft, NOT deliberate sabotage (which is covered in “Other fatal outcome”).
Steve died of a heart attack, stroke, etc. whilst still behind the controls of a correctly functioning aircraft.
Steve survived the initial plane crash with non life-threatening injuries, but died of exposure (thirst, hunger, heat stroke, etc.) trying to make it back to humanity.
Steve survived whatever caused his disappearance on 9/3/2007. Note that this implies he has either been kidnapped or is deceiving the world about his whereabouts.
We will not find Steve and discover Steve’s outcome before January 1st, 2010.