Since I created this market, I’m interested to hear everyone’s thoughts on this matter and why they are investing the way they are. I’m anticipating the gPhone won’t materialize this year, because of Google and Apple’s partnership and Apple having their phone released this year, but also because developer handsets are said to be shipping “by year’s end.” However, I don’t think it will be much after the start of 2008.

I realize now that I’ve missed an opportunity to cover more ground with this market by including a stock each for “between April and June” and for “never” (conceding that if we haven’t seen it by the end of 2008, we just aren’t going to see it). I guess someone else has covered the latter at http://home.inklingmarkets.com/market/show/6682.

I haven’t invested myself because as the admin for this market, I have access to insider information about your investments and I don’t want to skew the outcome.

I’m going to start telling people I personally know about prediction markets and ask them to invest in this one, so we should have more volume soon. Please help spread the word.

Thx,

D

Hmmm. Still no comments from the rest of you. So, to clarify, today’s announcement about the Android OS does not constitute a Google phone coming to market, but it does indicate that the first handset is a way out still. None the less, I’m not going to close out the market until a handset running Android actually goes to market.

Is this market about a cellphone system or just a handheld phone? My understanding was that Google was at least considering buying frequency allotments in the auction run by the FCC. If they bought frequency they could build their own cell network. The handheld with their own OS would only be a precursor in that case.

dblanchard as the admin, Inkling prevents you from investing in this market [at least in that user name.]

Cheers,
itoronto

This market is about actual devices, not a system or an operating system, but physical handsets. Those would make good markets though.

“The first handsets to run Android, the Google operating system announced three months ago, are expected to go on sale in the second half of the year.”

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/telecoms/article3365793.ece

No Android/gPhone in February. Still looks like second half of year.

http://www.smartphonetoday.com/articles/2008/2/2008-2-21-Google-May-Introduce.html