How long will the Writers Guild of America strike last?
| POSSIBLE ANSWERS | CHANCE | TODAY |
| 93.4%/ 100.0% | (closed) | |
| 3.9%/ 0.0% | (closed) | |
| 1.5%/ 0.0% | (closed) | |
| 0.9%/ 0.0% | (closed) | |
| 1.5%/ 0.0% | (closed) | |
| 2.7%/ 0.0% | (closed) | |
| 2.8%/ 0.0% | (closed) | |
| 1.7%/ 0.0% | (closed) | |
| 2.1%/ 0.0% | (closed) |
UPDATE: Note the following clarification added the evening of November 4:
One news report I read mentioned the possibility that the WGA could delay a strike for a few days, if progress were being made in the talks.
If a strike does not begin on Monday, November 5, but the WGA remains without a contract and a strike remains possible, the market will remain open. IF THE WGA BEGINS A STRIKE AFTER NOVEMBER 5, the dates in the contract definitions will be reset to match the actual starting date of the strike. For example, if the strike begins on November 9, then “One week or less” would pay off if the strike ends on or before November 16.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNLi4Ah.sHSA&refer=worldwide
Bradford Winters, a screenwriter who lives and works in New York, came home very animated after walking the picket line last Monday… “It was actually pretty upbeat,” he said … “There was music, I saw people I knew and there was a spirit in the air.”
But he said that on Monday night, when he read that the studio’s chief negotiator believed that the strike could last nine months, he gulped long and hard.
Of course the studio execs would want the WGA to believe that the studios are ready for a long strike, but the chief negotiator doesn’t have an incentive to disclose his true expectations in public.
Under the “market updates” header – you have to scroll down this page a bit to find it – you will find links to WGA strike related blog posts at MidasOracle.com. The MidasOracle.com blog includes a variety of prediction market trader oriented material, though the links here will only connect to strike related content.
The posts will include links to general news about the strike, other people’s predictions about how long the strike will go on, and periodic reports on prices and trading activity in the market here.
If you see a good quote about the strike, remarks on progress or predictions about when it will all end, click on the “contact market creator” link just below the prices and send me a note. I’ll pass along information via the blog. (Let me know whether I should thank you by name or trader ID or if you want to be anonymous.)
UPDATE/CORRECTION: The strike is officially over when the WGA calls off the strike, which can and likely will occur before the WGA membership vote up or down on the deal itself.
The WGA is voting on Tuesday, February 12 whether to end the strike and return to work on Wednesday, February 13. If that vote is positive, the strike ends and this market will expire the “More the three months, less than four” contract at 100.
The WGA membership will not complete voting on the new deal with the AMPTP for another 12 days.
NOTE: Having technical difficulties in cashing out the winning position. Will take care of this as soon as possible. Thank you for your patience.
Background information
The Writers Guild of America has set a November 5, 2007 strike deadline — if a deal is not reached by that time, a strike is likely. How long will a strike last, if one occurs?
A press release from the Writers Guild of America or other reliable media reports of an official end to the strike will be sufficient to end this market. If the strike continues past the market closing date, the market will close and “More than six months” will pay $100. If the strike is averted, or a strike begins and then is settled before May 6, the market will close before the listed market closing date.
More than three months, less than four
“3-4” will pay $100 if a deal is reach on or before March 5, 2006, but not before February 6.
No strike
The WGA deadline for a deal is Monday, November 5. As of market launch there is still time to reach a deal. “No strike” means exactly that – this contract will pay $100 if the WGA decides not to strike, whether or not they reach a deal before the deadline. If the WGA strikes, this contract will close at $0.
One week or less
“Week” pays off if the WGA strikes and the strike is ended on or before November 12.
Less than one month, more than a week
“0-1” will pay $100 if a deal is reach on or before December 5, but not before November 13.
More than one month, less than two
“1-2” will pay $100 if a deal is reach on or before January 5, 2008, but not before December 6, 2007.
More than two months, less than three
“2-3” will pay $100 if a deal is reach on or before February 5, 2006, but not before January 6.
More than four months, less than five
“4-5” will pay $100 if a deal is reach on or before April 5, 2008, but not before March 6.
More than five months, less than six
“5-6” will pay $100 if a deal is reach on or before May 5, 2008, but not before April 6.
More than six months
“6+” will pay $100 if the strike continues past May 5, 2008.