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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| The Field (someone not otherwise listed) | $88.39/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Les Miles (LSU) | $0.89/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Brian Kelly (Cincinnati) | $0.62/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Chris Peterson (Boise State) | $0.92/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Ron English (Michigan Def. Coordinator) | $0.62/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Jim Harbaugh (Stanford) | $1.38/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Mike DeBord (Michigan Off. Coordinator) | $0.62/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Ron Zook (Illinois) | $0.62/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Jim Tressel (Ohio State) | $0.56/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Bret Bielema (Wisconsin) | $0.62/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Mike Trgovac (Carolina Def. Coord.) | $0.62/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Kirk Ferentz (Iowa) | $3.76/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Jim Grobe (Wake Forest) | $0.62/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Barry Alvarez (Wisconsin AD) | $0.62/ $0.00 | (closed) |
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from the market creator:
help me here, guys. there’s news that Les Miles may be back in the hunt for the position again. I closed it out a few days ago, at a final trading price of $0.89.
What’s the fairest thing for me to do at this point?
Darn good question. When he signed the extension, seemed pretty unlikely that he would go to Michigan. If the new rumors are true, it almost looks like the announcement, etc. was a charade to keep the team focused for the SEC championship game to best position to get into the BCS championship game.
Maybe put him back in as Les Miles II with a new starting price?
Interesting…
another approach is to define Les Miles as part of “the field”. In this way you’ll have the smallest jarring of the market, since otherwise you have to let Les go from $0.89 to something perhaps much higher. Unclosing an already closed option isn’t so great.
Conversely, if you just add Les Miles to “the field” it won’t change nearly as much, allowing for stability.
Note that the position I have in the market currently is shorting 20 shares of Tressel, so it’s not like the decision will impact my current investments much one way or the other.
I think the fairest thing to do is to annouce when you’re going to open Miles back up. Give it another day or day and a half or whatever so everyone who wants to has a fair chance to know when he’s opening back up.
from the market creator:
As of this evening (Dec. 11, 2007), Miles again declares that he is not a candidate for the position. As such, I am NOT going to re-open the Miles option. Instead, under the (small?) chance that Miles is indeed named the next coach, I will simply refund the entire market.
Lesson learned for me—I won’t close out any more coaches in this market until it is completely over.
as of this afternoon (12/16), the Michigan website announces that Rodriguez will be the new coach. The formal announcement is scheduled for tomorrow. As such, I’ve closed trading, and will pay out the market when the formal announcement occurs.
If you think there is some chance Rodriguez changes his mind so you don’t want to close it out (e.g. it has happened before so you don’t want to end up with the “Miles” issue), you should leave the market open and let everyone take/play that risk. If you think Rodriguez is a done deal so there are free inklings to have by leaving it open, you should cash out the market. Leaving it frozen is the worst of all worlds – you can’t have it both ways.
This market will pay out 100 Inkies to the individual who is named the next head football coach of the University of Michigan. All other answers will pay zero Inkies. The market will pay out upon official announcement from the University of Michigan.
Although it is set to close in February, I will extend the market closing in the unlikely event that Michigan has not yet named a head coach at the end of February.