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| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| Verizon | $16.82/ $100.00 | (closed) |
| Joint Bidding of multiple companies | $12.86/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| $7.55/ $0.00 | (closed) | |
| AT&T | $12.46/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Cox Cable | $4.76/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| DISH Network | $2.71/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Vodaphone | $2.71/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Frontline Wireless | $0.94/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Leap Wireless | $2.71/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| MetroPCS | $2.03/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| NTT DoCoMo | $3.39/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Cablevision | $3.39/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| Other | $10.92/ $0.00 | (closed) |
| None | $17.64/ $0.00 | (closed) |
Please read at least the bold section of the “Market Info” section before bidding, so you understand exactly what the question means.
If I’ve missed a likely major player, please let me know. I’ll add companies until new years, and then stop. IE, before Jan 1, don’t buy “Other” if you have a specific other in mind, tell me. After Jan 1, buy “Other”.
What if a company acquires the licenses through an affiliate or, say, a joint bidding group of some sort.
I don’t know about whether or how these companies are participating in the auction, but often in such auctions it may be a whole or partly owned affiliate that bids. The name of the bidder may not be closely related to the name of the broader corporation.
Are you going to “connect the dots” and assign the winner based on corporate relationships?
In regards to the possibility of joint bidding, I added a new stock. Please see the market info update, and the info for that stock.
In regards to affiliate ownership… if one of the companies listed above owns majority shares (or just outright owns) the winning bidder, I’ll count that company as the winner. If it gets more convoluted than that and I can’t make a sane decision on who to count as winner, I’ll refund the market.
Hopefully it’ll be a nice simple case of Google telling the telco’s were to stick it, and the cashout won’t be confusing!
Frontline is history
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200801141751DOWJONESDJONLINE000719_FORTUNE5.htm
onemike has brought it to my attention that “Verizon Wireless” is actually a joint venture of Verizon and Vodafone. Which makes for a bit of a mess. I don’t really have any good options for resolving this, but my best guess is that most of the people bidding haven’t made the distinction between Verizon and Verizon Wireless, or the association with Vodafone.
Therefore, to try to cash out based on what people most likely thought they were bidding on, if Verizon Wireless wins the spectrum listed in this Market, I will cash out “Verizon” as the winning stock, and not “Vodafone” or “Joint Bidding”.
I realize this is a cheap hack. Sorry about that. :-( Drop me a note if this actually screws anybody over and I’ll figure something out.
Through Round 29, no bids for individual regions covering the US in the C-Block Auction – only on package of all 50 states.
https://auctionbidding.fcc.gov/auction/index.htm?CFID=1766941&CFTOKEN=55959085&jsessionid=wGtcHnhWbVkh7bm9Z8bNGLCf9Z9BPQH1TnVqpp3wsGybB1Smgg5C1562585468!1202150038149
As of round 40, when last a bid was submitted on C-block, the eight regional license bids outweighed the 50-state package bid. The auction is now in Round 116, due to bidding in the A, B, and E blocks, but it looks like the auction action is over insofar as C-block is concerned. (However, by the rules, the C-block auction remains open until all bidding stops in every block. Maybe possible someone comes up with a new bid?)
Of course, maybe one entity bought the 1-6 regional licenses that cover the contiguous states without bidding on the package that includes Alaska and Hawaii too, and if one entity gets licenses 1-6, it will be the winner here.
Still, I think “None” will win.
Auction of wireless airwaves seen nearing end
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23507358/
Per FCC website:
Auction 73 Closed
There were no bids, withdrawals, or proactive activity
rule waivers placed in Round 261. Therefore, Auction 73
has closed under the simultaneous stopping rule.
Unless it starts to leak out or companies are obligated to disclose by the FCC, sound like the winners won’t be announced until at least April.
http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9897722-7.html?tag=newsmap
Time to close this one. Verizon won regions 1-6. Bids for Verizon get paid, all others go home empty.
(disclosure: I bid on “multiple companies” and not Verizon)
Attachment A Page 63 shows results of C Block Auction – Cellco Partnership d/b/a Verizon wins contiguous US (Regions 1-6)
http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DA-08-595A2.pdf
It looks like I made enough shorting Google and a modest hedge on Verizon to cover up my expensive bets on “None.”
Broadcast TV in the US is going off the air in 2009. In January of 2008, the bandwidth currently used for it will be auctioned off for use in internet or cell phone communications after Broadcast TV shuts down.
There are different sections of bandwidth and different regions of the country. The auction will be split up into 5 blocks of bandwidth. The biggest block is the C block, and by the rules of the auction, the winner of the C block auction must allow any “safe” devices to access their network.
The C block is split up into 12 regional licenses across the US. However, only regions 1 through 6 are needed for a network covering all of the contiguous US. The other’s cover alaska, hawaii, etc. There’s a definite opportunity for one company to role out a national network, but the required infrastructure costs would be enormous, and the bidding will be very competitive. (The minimum bid for the C Block is 4.6 Billion, and Google has already pledged to meet that, because if it’s not met, the Open Access requirements will be dropped and the bidding restarted.)
To win this Inkling Market, one company will have to win the 700mhz C-Block auction for Regions 1 through 6. If Regions 1 through 6 are split between competing bidders, “None” will be the winning stock in this Market. Regions 7 through 12, and blocks A, B, D, and E, are not relevant to this Inkling Market. The map of regions can be found here: http://wireless.fcc.gov/auctions/data/maps/REAG.pdf
The auction begins on January 24th, 2008. I’ve set the market to close the day after that, to be sure it will be closed before results are announced. However, bidding may take several weeks, so people investing in this Inkling Market should be prepared for their investments to be inaccessible for a month or two. It’s annoying, I know, but better than having people jump in and buy or sell after the announcement is made before I read the news for that day.
UPDATE: I added a stock for a joint bid by multiple companies. If this happens it will be the only winning stock, even if one or more of the companies listed above are part of the joint bit. Mostly because I can only cash out one winner in this market. If the actual result is even more convoluted than that due to complexities I haven’t foreseen, and I can’t make a solid choice of who to consider the winner, I’ll refund the market.
Verizon will win at least Regions 1-6 of the 700mhz C-Block US spectrum auction.
Several companies will bid together for joint ownership of Regions 1 through 6 of the 700mhz C-Block US spectrum auction. Whether this is several of the companies listed above or other companies, only this stock will be the winner if multiple companies bid together to win.
Frontline is a front company partly owned by several others, but I’ll count them as one for the purpose of this market.
Google will win at least Regions 1-6 of the 700mhz C-Block US spectrum auction.
AT&T will win at least Regions 1-6 of the 700mhz C-Block US spectrum auction.
Cox will win at least Regions 1-6 of the 700mhz C-Block US spectrum auction.
DISH Network will win at least Regions 1-6 of the 700mhz C-Block US spectrum auction. Same thing as EchoStar.
Vodaphone will win at least Regions 1-6 of the 700mhz C-Block US spectrum auction.
Frontline Wireless will win at least Regions 1-6 of the 700mhz C-Block US spectrum auction.
Leap Wireless will win at least Regions 1-6 of the 700mhz C-Block US spectrum auction.
MetroPCS will win at least Regions 1-6 of the 700mhz C-Block US spectrum auction.
NTT DoCoMo will win at least Regions 1-6 of the 700mhz C-Block US spectrum auction.
Cablevision will win at least Regions 1-6 of the 700mhz C-Block US spectrum auction.
Another company not listed here will win at least Regions 1-6 of the 700mhz C-Block US spectrum auction.
No one company will win all of Regions 1 through 6 of the 700mhz C-Block US spectrum auction.